Mostly dry conditions forecast for next week as parts of UK still in drought

Severe drought remains in parts of southern England, especially the South West and Sussex. The named affected counties are Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex. Much of Wales also remains officially in drought, although the article does not describe all Welsh areas as being in severe drought.

Northern England has seen improvement after heavy rain. All of north-west England, including Greater Manchester and Cumbria, was downgraded to recovery status on Wednesday. England had just experienced its wettest week for two years, helping conditions improve in that region.

The change does not mean the wider water problem is over. High pressure is expected to bring mostly dry weather next week, which is particularly bad news for southern regions. The Environment Agency says the whole country needs at least 120% of average rainfall over six months to leave drought by next spring.

An official drought classification means a government authority has assessed water conditions as significantly below normal and potentially harmful. It reflects a sustained shortage that can affect rivers, soils, reservoirs, wildlife, farming or public water supplies. The classification helps authorities coordinate monitoring, warnings and responses.

The article shows that drought status can change by region. North-west England was moved into recovery after heavy rain, while parts of the South West and Sussex remained in severe drought. This demonstrates that official status depends on local conditions, not just the weather across the whole country.

The article does not give the precise thresholds used for each classification. In standard drought monitoring, authorities consider rainfall alongside river flows, soil moisture, reservoir storage and water demand. “Recovery” means conditions are improving, but it does not necessarily mean water resources have returned fully to normal.

At least 120% of average rainfall is needed over the next six months for the entire country to leave drought by next spring. This means rainfall would need to reach one hundred and twenty percent of the usual amount for that period, rather than merely match the average.

The figure matters because recent rain has not affected every region equally. Heavy rain helped move all north-west England into recovery, but severe drought remains in parts of southern England, and much of Wales is still in drought. A national target therefore reflects shortages that remain in several areas.

The forecast makes that recovery harder. High pressure is expected to dominate during the coming week, bringing mostly dry weather. Some showers are likely, especially in parts of the north, east and south-east, but most areas should stay dry. Continued dry weather could delay the country’s return to normal conditions.

If mostly dry weather continues, southern England and Wales could face prolonged pressure on water supplies. Reservoirs may refill slowly, rivers may remain low, and soils can lose moisture. These changes can affect farming, gardens, wildlife and wetlands. The article confirms that severe drought already persists in parts of southern England and that much of Wales remains in drought.

The key mechanism is cumulative shortage. Rainfall replenishes soil, rivers and stored water. When evaporation and water use continue during a dry period, those stores can decline faster than they recover. One wet week may improve conditions in a region without restoring the whole country. That pattern occurred in northern England after heavy rain.

The article does not forecast specific future river or supply failures. However, it says the country needs at least 120% of average rainfall over six months to leave drought by next spring. Mostly dry weather would make that recovery target harder to reach.

High pressure is linked with sinking air and generally stable conditions. As air sinks, it discourages the strong upward motion that helps clouds and rain develop. That is why high-pressure systems often bring settled, dry weather and light winds. The Met Office expects high pressure to dominate during the coming week.

The same stability can create poor visibility. With little wind or mixing, damp air near the ground can remain in place and form fog. Smoke from bonfires can also accumulate instead of dispersing quickly. Tom Morgan warned that Bonfire Night could bring trapped smoke and poor visibility, although major hazards were not expected.

A yellow fog warning covered parts of England and Wales until Sunday morning. Some dense fog patches reduced visibility to less than 100 metres. Thus, high pressure can bring pleasant sunny spells while also creating local travel and air-quality problems, especially overnight and early in the day.

Storms Austen and Boelo brought a sharp burst of wet and windy weather after a long dry period. England recorded its wettest week for two years. That rainfall improved drought conditions in northern England, allowing all north-west England, including Greater Manchester and Cumbria, to move into recovery status.

The same storms caused serious disruption because intense rain raised river levels and powerful winds damaged infrastructure. Austen produced an amber warning for strong winds and rain across Cornwall and parts of Devon on October 23. Gusts reached nearly 80mph on the Isle of Wight. Flights were cancelled, and thousands of homes lost power.

Boelo arrived the following day. It brought an amber wind warning for Scotland and a yellow warning across northern England. The storms therefore showed how one weather system can help replenish water resources in one region while creating dangerous conditions, travel problems and flooding concerns elsewhere.

Rainfall is an important drought signal, but it does not tell the whole story. Authorities also need to know whether water has reached the soil, rivers and reservoirs. These stores respond differently to rain, depending on timing, intensity, ground conditions and recent water use. A short downpour may raise river levels without fully restoring deeper water reserves.

Soil moisture shows whether plants and farmland have accessible water. River levels indicate the health of flowing water systems and can change quickly after storms. Reservoir supplies show how much stored water is available for communities and other users. Together, these measures provide a fuller picture than rainfall totals alone.

The article illustrates this distinction. Heavy rain moved north-west England into recovery, while severe drought remained in parts of southern England and much of Wales. The Environment Agency still requires 120% of average rainfall over six months for the whole country to leave drought by next spring.