Bulgarian acting president Iliana Iotova wins run-off election, exit polls show

The exit polls pointed to a clear Iotova victory in Bulgaria’s presidential run-off. Three polling organizations estimated that she would receive between 50.7% and 52.5% of the vote. Gyurov was projected to receive between 43.4% and 44%.

That suggested an advantage of roughly seven to nine percentage points. It was wider than the first-round gap, when Iotova led Gyurov by only three points, taking 35% compared with his 32%. The first round also had just 23% turnout.

The projections put Iotova on track to become Bulgaria’s first elected female president. She had already taken over the presidency earlier in the year from Radev. The final result would confirm whether the exit polls had captured the run-off accurately, while higher turnout could still affect the final margin.

A presidential run-off is a second election held between the strongest candidates from an initial round. It gives voters a direct choice between the finalists. This can produce a clearer winner than a crowded first ballot, where votes are divided among several candidates.

Bulgaria held a run-off because Iotova and Gyurov were the top two candidates in the first round. Iotova won 35% then, while Gyurov received 32%. Their close totals meant the contest continued rather than ending after the first vote.

The second round therefore became a test of broader support. Voters who backed other candidates, or who stayed home initially, could now influence the result. Election officials expected higher participation than the first round’s 23% turnout. Exit polls later projected Iotova ahead, with between 50.7% and 52.5% of the vote.

The exit polls showed Iotova ahead by roughly 6.7 to 9.1 percentage points. They placed her between 50.7% and 52.5%, while Gyurov stood between 43.4% and 44%. The range reflects differences among the three polling organizations, not a single final count.

The apparent lead was much larger than in the first round. Iotova then received 35% and Gyurov 32%, a gap of just three points. That earlier result had been closer than opinion polls predicted, since they had forecast a 20-point Iotova advantage.

Bulgaria has a population of 6.4 million people, according to the article. The size of the electorate and the expected increase in turnout made participation important. The first round drew 23% turnout, while officials expected more people to vote in the run-off and potentially affect the final margin.

Bulgaria’s presidency is largely ceremonial, which means it does not normally control everyday government policy. The office still carries national authority and can shape public debate, represent the country, and influence how Bulgaria presents its security and foreign-policy priorities. Those powers make the president politically important even when executive control is limited.

Iotova supports Bulgaria’s membership in the EU and NATO, but also argues that peace in Ukraine can come only through negotiations. She said she wanted Bulgaria to be “strong in a strong Europe” and “sovereign in its decisions.” Her approach contrasts with Gyurov’s emphasis on a secure, stable and European Bulgaria.

Her election could therefore give greater visibility to dialogue with Moscow and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. It would not automatically change Bulgaria’s alliances or government policy. It could, however, strengthen voices seeking a more cautious position toward Russia while keeping EU and NATO membership central.

Iotova’s position became central because the election took place during heightened security concerns. Drone attacks had struck commercial vessels in the Black Sea, and several vessels were hit off Bulgaria in October. The attacks left 21 people missing and were suspected to be spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Gyurov criticized Iotova for not explicitly blaming Russia. In a televised debate, he said Russia must stop its aggression before further steps could be taken. Iotova instead maintained that peace could come only through negotiations. Her stance reflected her broader preference for dialogue with Moscow and opposition to military aid to Ukraine.

The disagreement offered voters two different interpretations of security and diplomacy. Bulgaria’s government said there was no evidence directly linking the attacks to Moscow, although Radev said they appeared to serve Russian interests. The debate therefore connected foreign policy, maritime safety and Bulgaria’s role in Europe.

Drone attacks on commercial vessels created a direct security concern for Bulgaria, even though the article does not establish who carried them out. Several vessels were struck in the Black Sea off Bulgaria in October, leaving 21 people missing. The incidents were suspected to be spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war.

The attacks also exposed different political responses. Radev said they appeared to serve Russian interests and summoned Russia’s ambassador. Yet his government said there was no evidence directly linking the attacks to Moscow. Gyurov pressed for Russia to stop its aggression, while Iotova argued for negotiations.

The incidents could make maritime security and the war more important in Bulgaria’s relations with Russia, Ukraine, the EU and NATO. They may encourage closer attention to shipping safety and alliance security. At the same time, Iotova’s election could keep dialogue with Moscow prominent while Bulgaria remains committed to EU and NATO membership.

Bulgaria’s historical closeness to Russia creates tension because the country now belongs to institutions associated with Europe and the Western security system. EU and NATO membership shape Bulgaria’s partnerships and commitments. The article describes the country as deeply divided over its relationship with Moscow.

That divide appeared during the campaign. Iotova supports EU and NATO membership but favors dialogue with Moscow and says Ukraine’s peace requires negotiations. Gyurov presented himself as supporting a secure, stable and European Bulgaria. He also criticized Iotova for not explicitly blaming Russia over the Black Sea attacks.

The tension is therefore not simply about membership. It concerns how Bulgaria interprets security, war and diplomacy within those alliances. Iotova’s projected victory may give more political space to cautious engagement with Russia. But her stated support for EU and NATO means the country’s Western commitments remain part of her position.