Rice exports face mounting headwinds

Thailand exported 4.99 million tonnes of rice in the first nine months of 2026. The shipments were worth US$2.96 billion, or 94.9 billion baht. That pace is below what the country needs to reach its annual goal of 7 million tonnes.

Several major markets became harder to serve. The war affecting the Strait of Hormuz disrupted exports to Iraq, which bought more than 1 million tonnes from Thailand in 2025. Indonesia stopped importing Thai rice while trying to increase domestic consumption. US tariffs and high inflation also reduced demand for Thai hom mali rice.

The Department of Foreign Trade expects total exports to reach about 6.5 million tonnes this year. It plans trade missions, importer meetings, conferences and exhibitions to secure new orders. Asian shipments are growing, but these gains may not fully replace lost demand elsewhere.

Thai rice refers here to rice exported by Thailand. The article focuses on two named types: Thai hom mali rice and Thai white rice 5%. It does not give a formal definition of either variety or list every type Thailand sells, so the safest description comes from how the article discusses their markets and prices.

Thai hom mali rice faced weaker exports to the United States because tariffs affected shipments and inflation reduced demand. The article gives a clearer price comparison for Thai white rice 5%. It costs about $480 per tonne, compared with $420 for Vietnamese rice and $388 for Indian rice.

These examples show that “Thai rice” covers products with different market positions. Hom mali is discussed in connection with the US, while white rice 5% is compared with competing national supplies. The Department of Foreign Trade is promoting Thai rice quality and seeking new orders.

Demand did not move in one direction. Thailand exported 1.71 million tonnes to Asian countries in the first nine months, up 13.3% year-on-year. The Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Mozambique were among markets showing growth, with Malaysia up 155% and Hong Kong up 63%.

The Philippines increased imports by 263% year-on-year, while Malaysia bought its highest volume of Thai rice in 20 years. These gains helped Asian shipments nearly match Thailand’s 1.73 million tonnes sent to Africa. The growth made export markets more balanced.

Other buyers became less reliable. Iraq was affected by the war and partial Strait of Hormuz closure. Indonesia stopped importing Thai rice while increasing domestic consumption. Thai hom mali shipments to the United States faced tariffs and weaker demand linked to high inflation. Thailand is seeking new orders through trade missions and meetings.

The three developments reduced Thailand’s access to important buyers. Iraq imported more than 1 million tonnes of Thai rice in 2025, but the war in the Middle East and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected shipments. That removed or disrupted a major outlet for Thai rice.

Indonesia stopped importing Thai rice because it aims to increase domestic consumption. Thai exports to the United States also suffered. Tariffs affected hom mali shipments, and high inflation weakened demand there. These pressures work differently: war obstructs trade routes, policy changes reduce foreign purchases, and tariffs or inflation make sales less attractive.

Together, the problems help explain why exports may total only 6.5 million tonnes, below the 7-million-tonne target. Thailand is responding with missions, importer meetings, conferences and exhibitions in markets such as Japan, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Africa.

The Philippines sharply increased its Thai rice purchases because it was concerned about El Niño and wanted to strengthen food security. Its imports rose 263% year-on-year. This shows how climate-related risks can quickly change a country’s buying decisions, even while other markets reduce purchases.

El Niño is a climate pattern that can bring unusually warm conditions and disrupt rainfall. When those conditions hurt crops or make harvests less dependable, domestic food supplies may fall. A country may then import more rice to maintain availability and build a stronger supply cushion. This general explanation extends beyond the details provided in the article.

For Thailand, the Philippine increase helped offset weakness elsewhere. Thailand shipped 1.71 million tonnes to Asian countries during the first nine months, up 13.3%. The Department of Foreign Trade is pursuing more orders through meetings and trade missions in the Philippines and other key markets.

Thai white rice 5% is more expensive than comparable Vietnamese and Indian rice. The article puts Thai rice at around $480 per tonne, compared with $420 for Vietnamese rice and $388 for Indian rice. That gap matters because importers often compare prices when the products compete for the same orders.

The mechanism is straightforward. If buyers view the varieties as acceptable substitutes, a higher Thai price can make Vietnamese or Indian rice more attractive. Importers may buy less Thai rice, seek discounts, or shift orders to cheaper suppliers. The article does not state exactly how much demand has moved because of the price gap, so the effect is a likely competitive pressure rather than a measured result.

Thailand is trying to compete through quality promotion and new business contacts. The Department of Foreign Trade plans trade missions, conferences and exhibitions. Still, price may limit export growth unless buyers value Thai quality enough to pay more.

Tariffs raise the cost or reduce the appeal of imported goods, while inflation can weaken consumers’ and importers’ purchasing power. Crop yields affect how much a country can supply and at what cost. Demand also changes with food-security concerns, domestic policies, climate risks and competing prices. Together, these forces shape export competitiveness.

Thailand’s rice trade shows the mechanism. US tariffs and inflation hurt Thai hom mali demand. Indonesia stopped importing while pursuing more domestic consumption. The article also reports supply shortages and weak demand in tapioca exports because production yields were low. Thai white rice 5% faced price competition from Vietnam and India.

A country competes best when it can maintain dependable supply, attractive prices, quality and market access. Thailand is promoting quality and seeking orders through trade missions and exhibitions. The article’s examples show that strong demand in one market may not fully offset tariffs, disrupted routes, policy shifts or cheaper rivals elsewhere.