The ANC set to lose South African cities

The ANC losing control of a city means it no longer has enough elected support to govern that municipality alone. Control covers decisions about local budgets, administration, and services such as water, sanitation, and refuse collection. It does not mean the party disappears from the city.

For example, if opposition parties win more council seats than the ANC, they could form a governing coalition. If no group wins a majority, parties must negotiate over leadership and policy. The election determines who runs more than 250 municipalities across South Africa.

This matters because municipal performance directly affects daily life and business. Polls suggest most major metropolitan municipalities may need coalitions. Investors will therefore watch whether these new governments align and perform well, not just which party receives the most votes. A weak ANC result could also reduce its influence nationally.

The local elections will decide who runs more than 250 municipalities. These councils handle essential local responsibilities, including water, sanitation, refuse collection, roads, and municipal finances. The contest therefore reaches far beyond party politics: it determines who manages services for communities across the country.

South Africa’s eight metropolitan municipalities are especially important. Together, they house about 40% of the population and account for an outsized share of economic activity. Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Durban are among the major urban centers highlighted in the polling.

Their political results could have national economic and political effects. Polls suggest six of the eight metros may not produce outright winners, creating coalition negotiations. Businesses already pay for failing services through backup water storage, private security, and road repairs. Investors will judge whether the resulting coalitions can govern these economically crucial areas effectively.

Coalitions are likely because no single party may win enough council seats to govern most major cities alone. The latest Ipsos poll put the ANC’s national support at 30%, an all-time low. Opposition parties are making deeper inroads in the large urban centers that drive much of South Africa’s economy.

The pattern is visible in the metros. About 30% of respondents in Johannesburg and Tshwane supported the ANC, while only 10% did so in Durban. The MK party led in Durban, adding another major competitor to the political field. Several polls point to divided results rather than one-party victories.

Oxford Economics predicts that six of the eight metros will need coalition governments. Parties will therefore have to negotiate leadership, budgets, and policy. The quality of those agreements matters because unreliable coalitions could worsen already serious problems with services, corruption, roads, and municipal finances.

Municipalities are responsible for basic local services, including water, sanitation, and refuse collection. They also manage local infrastructure such as roads and municipal finances. These functions matter because failures are felt directly in homes, neighborhoods, and workplaces.

The article gives a clear business example. Companies are investing in backup water storage, private security, and road repairs because local governments are failing to provide reliably. Unreliable water supplies, deteriorating roads, corruption, and financial mismanagement have left many councils struggling.

Residents face weaker basic services, while businesses face extra costs just to remain operational. Busi Mavuso warned that investors can redirect money when infrastructure and municipalities fail. The next local governments will therefore affect both living conditions and economic confidence. Their ability to form aligned, effective coalitions may matter more than the election result itself.

The ANC’s support is stronger in rural provinces because its remaining voter base is increasingly concentrated in smaller towns and dispersed settlements. Limpopo and the Eastern Cape are much less urbanized than Gauteng or the Western Cape, and ANC support there remains near 60%.

The contrast with cities is striking. About 30% of respondents in Johannesburg and Tshwane backed the ANC, but only 10% did so in Durban. Opposition parties are making deeper inroads in major urban centers. Urban voters are also exposed to failing water supplies, bad roads, corruption, and municipal mismanagement.

The article presents this as a broader political reconfiguration after 30 years of democracy. Rural support remains valuable, especially because countryside towns held nearly 60% of the country’s poor in 2023. But the ANC’s weak urban performance threatens control of economically important metros and could reshape national coalition politics.

The ANC and Democratic Alliance became governing partners after the 2024 general election. The ANC remained the larger party nationally but lost its parliamentary majority, forcing it to share power for the first time in the democratic era. A weak local result would test whether that balance is changing further.

William Gumede said the key threshold is an ANC vote share close to, or below, the DA’s. In that situation, he argued, the ANC would have to treat its junior partner as an equal power in policymaking and government decisions. Local results could therefore affect national negotiations, even though the elections choose municipal governments.

The parties have different economic approaches. The ANC supports state-led economic transformation policies, while the DA pushes for greater private investment. If the ANC loses major cities, the DA could gain stronger bargaining power. The result would be more influence over the coalition’s direction and potentially greater pressure for policy compromise.

Fiscal space means the room a government has to make new commitments without putting unsustainable pressure on its finances. Political pressure can exceed that room when voters demand more public jobs, grants, or free services, but the government has limited funds to pay for them. The article does not state the government’s total available budget.

The pressure is especially strong in poorer rural areas. Countryside towns accounted for nearly 60% of the country’s poor in 2023. To win voters back, the ANC may want to expand public employment and automatically enroll grant-receiving households for free basic services. Each promise creates continuing spending obligations.

The article says this pressure is not hypothetical: Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said government departments had requested more than 700 billion. Without enough fiscal room, meeting every request would require difficult trade-offs. The local-election result could therefore encourage more spending promises precisely when financial demands are already high.