COP31: Will this year’s climate summit be the most underwhelming ever?

COP31 is the latest annual United Nations climate summit. Countries use these meetings to negotiate shared action on climate change and to review progress under the Paris Agreement. The summit is scheduled to begin in Antalya on 9 November and last two weeks.

Antalya was chosen as the host city for this year’s meeting. Turkey and Australia are jointly hosting the summit, described as a shared effort. Delegates will discuss unfinished decisions from COP30, including adaptation finance and support for workers affected by the shift away from fossil fuels.

The meeting matters because emissions are still rising, despite the Paris Agreement. The world is currently on track for about 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century. COP31 is therefore a chance to strengthen commitments, although the hosts are signaling a business-as-usual summit rather than a major new treaty.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries promised to hold global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. They also pledged to pursue efforts to keep warming as close to 1.5°C as possible. COP is the main forum where countries discuss progress and negotiate further action toward those goals.

The agreement gives the summits a common destination, but countries must still decide how to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. Proposed action includes moving away from fossil fuels, ending deforestation and helping vulnerable countries cope with damage already occurring.

The Paris process has helped lower projected warming compared with expectations before 2015. However, it has not yet delivered enough action. Global emissions are still not falling, and the current path points to 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century, far above both Paris goals.

The Paris Agreement sets two linked goals: keep warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to stay as close to 1.5°C as possible. These limits are intended to reduce the severity of climate impacts compared with a much warmer future.

The article gives a stark comparison. Although expected warming is lower than before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, current policies and commitments still put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century. That is roughly 1.3°C above the agreement’s most ambitious goal.

The central problem is that global emissions are not yet declining. This gap explains why COP31 faces pressure to produce stronger action. The article points to possible transition plans, adaptation funding and electrification, but it also says major new commitments remain uncertain.

At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, countries agreed to remain united behind the Paris Agreement. That was the summit’s basic achievement. They also agreed to create a just transition mechanism and to triple adaptation finance for lower-income countries by 2035, although important details remained unresolved.

The summit failed to agree on fresh commitments to move away from fossil fuels or end deforestation. More than 80 countries supported developing road maps away from oil, gas and coal, but the final text did not mention fossil fuels. The proposed plans would guide economies through a cleaner transition.

Delegates therefore left with limited progress and several unfinished tasks for COP31. Countries must clarify the just transition mechanism, define adaptation finance and possibly announce national fossil-fuel road maps. So far, only France has produced something like a complete road map.

COP decisions generally require unanimous agreement because the meetings bring together sovereign countries making shared international commitments. Consensus gives every participating government a voice and prevents a decision from being imposed on countries that reject it.

That safeguard can also slow or weaken action. A single country, or a small group of countries, can resist wording that threatens fossil-fuel interests, economic plans or national priorities. Negotiators may then remove ambitious proposals simply to preserve agreement among all participants.

The article identifies this need for unanimity as a major criticism of the COP system. At COP30, countries could not agree on commitments to move away from fossil fuels or end deforestation. The final result was only continued support for the Paris Agreement. COP31 faces the same structural problem, even as climate impacts intensify.

A just transition mechanism is intended to support people affected by the move to a cleaner economy. It could help fossil-fuel workers retrain and help communities adjust as energy systems change. Adaptation finance serves a different but connected purpose: it helps lower-income countries cope with climate impacts already occurring.

At COP30, countries agreed to create the mechanism, though they variously called it a platform, hub or work programme. They also promised to triple adaptation finance for lower-income countries by 2035. The mechanism could support workers, while adaptation money could help vulnerable countries respond to worsening conditions.

Neither promise has enough detail yet. The just transition process has barely started. The finance commitment has no baseline year and no agreement on who contributes or what counts as finance. COP31 will continue negotiating these issues, under pressure from developing countries and civil society.

Electrifying transport and heating replaces direct fuel use with electricity. This can reduce emissions when electricity comes increasingly from cleaner sources. If power stations still burn large amounts of coal, oil or gas, however, the pollution has not disappeared; it has moved upstream into electricity generation.

For example, an electric car has no exhaust pipe, and an electric heating system does not burn fuel inside a home. Their overall climate benefit depends on how the electricity is produced. As grids transition to cleaner fuels, the same cars and heating systems become a stronger route away from fossil fuels.

The article presents electrification as the hosts’ preferred pathway at COP31. Turkey has launched a target for countries to electrify 35 per cent of annual energy consumption by 2035, up from about 23 per cent today. The target’s effect will depend on cleaner electricity systems.