Netanyahu's fear campaign won large share of support in inconclusive election

Israel’s November 2022 election ended with a clear advantage for Netanyahu’s allies, but not with one party able to govern alone. The Knesset has 120 seats, so a government needs support from at least 61. Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats, while several smaller parties determined whether his bloc could govern.

The result was fragmented because voters divided their support among many parties. Netanyahu’s Likud won 32 seats. His likely partners included Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. Together, they reached 64 seats. Opposition parties won 56 seats, but they differed sharply over policy and leadership.

That division mattered more than the overall vote lead. Netanyahu could form a government if all four parties stayed together. His opponents needed an unusually broad coalition, possibly involving parties from the political right, center, left, and Arab community. The election therefore settled the bloc arithmetic but not the political outcome immediately.

A fear campaign is an electoral strategy that presents an opponent, event, or outside enemy as a serious danger. It asks voters to choose security and stability rather than risk an uncertain alternative. Such campaigns can be powerful when people already feel vulnerable, because fear simplifies complicated political choices.

In this election, Netanyahu and his allies focused on threats facing Israel. Their warnings included Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Hezbollah’s military power, Hamas’s attacks, and terrorism more broadly. Netanyahu also portrayed cooperation with Arab parties as a danger to national security and political stability. These messages connected opposition politics with perceived risks.

The campaign mattered because security is a central concern in Israeli politics. The headlines describe Netanyahu’s fear campaign as winning a large share of support, but they do not provide polling or vote figures explaining its exact effect. Its broader implication was to strengthen Netanyahu’s argument that only his leadership could protect Israel.

The decisive figure was the seat count, not simply the popular vote. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc won roughly 2.3 million valid votes and 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The opposing parties won roughly 2.2 million votes and 56 seats. Because Israel uses proportional representation, votes were distributed among several parties rather than producing a two-party result.

Netanyahu’s bloc included Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. Their combined 64 seats put them three seats above the 61-seat governing threshold. The opposition had 56 seats, leaving it five short of a majority. It also contained parties with conflicting political and ideological goals.

The supplied headlines do not state these vote totals, so the figures come from election reporting rather than the provided text. The result was close in votes but clearer in parliamentary terms. Netanyahu therefore had the easier path, provided his partners remained united and accepted a coalition agreement.

Benjamin Netanyahu was Likud’s leader and the central candidate seeking to become prime minister. He had previously served many terms and campaigned on security, experience, and opposition to the government that replaced him. His natural partners were religious and right-wing parties.

Yair Lapid was the centrist prime minister heading the outgoing coalition. Benny Gantz led the National Unity alliance, with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot as a prominent figure. Eisenkot entered politics after serving as Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and was presented as a security-focused alternative. Other important leaders included Bezalel Smotrich of Religious Zionism, Aryeh Deri of Shas, and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu.

These leaders did not all share the same program. Some opposed Netanyahu personally, while others disagreed with his policies but could work with parts of his bloc. That made coalition negotiations decisive. The headlines capture the contest as a clash between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, alongside a broader struggle over Israel’s future.

When no party wins a majority, Israel does not automatically hold another election. The president consults elected parties and assigns one politician the task of forming a government. That politician must persuade enough parties to sign a coalition agreement and support the government in the Knesset.

The designated candidate normally receives 28 days, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If that attempt fails, the president can ask another member of the Knesset to try. A further 21-day period may follow if no candidate has succeeded. Coalition talks usually focus on cabinet posts, budgets, legislation, and policy commitments.

If nobody can assemble a majority, the Knesset can dissolve and another election can be held. In this case, Netanyahu had the stronger numerical position because his bloc already held 64 seats. His main risk was disagreement among coalition partners, while opponents had to overcome both their ideological differences and their five-seat deficit.

A Netanyahu government required cooperation among four main blocs: Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. Their combined 64 seats gave them a parliamentary majority. The mechanism was straightforward: each party would negotiate ministries, budgets, religious policy, security policy, and legislative priorities before signing a coalition agreement.

The alternative was a government of change led by Netanyahu’s opponents. Yair Lapid could seek support from Benny Gantz’s National Unity alliance, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor, Meretz, and Ra’am. Since those parties did not share a common ideology, such a government might need Arab support or cooperation from a party outside the usual anti-Netanyahu camp.

The opposition route was numerically and politically difficult. It needed at least 61 seats, but its parties had different views on nationalism, religion, the Palestinians, and Arab political participation. The headlines show relatives of October 7 victims urging opposition leaders to form such a government, adding public pressure to the negotiations.

Israel’s system converts each party’s share of the vote into Knesset seats, subject to the electoral threshold. Voters choose party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister. The result is usually a legislature containing many parties, none of which can govern alone. This makes coalition bargaining central to political power.

In the 2022 election, Likud won 32 seats, but that was far below the 61 needed for a majority. Netanyahu therefore depended on Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism. Their seats were added together to produce a 64-seat bloc. Opposition parties followed the same arithmetic but could not easily agree on a common government.

The system can represent a wide range of voters, including religious, secular, Arab, nationalist, and left-wing constituencies. It can also produce repeated elections when coalition talks fail. The election’s inconclusive character reflected this trade-off: proportional representation broadens representation, while coalition politics can make governments difficult to form and keep together.