How Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will shape his state’s 2026 midterm race

US midterm elections are elections held midway through a president’s term. Voters choose members of Congress and often decide state offices, including governors. They can reshape national and state politics even though the presidency is not on the ballot.

Florida’s governor’s race is open because Ron DeSantis has served two terms. The article says term limits prevent him from running for a third election. That makes the 2026 contest a choice between candidates seeking to control the state’s executive branch after his departure.

Republican Byron Donalds is campaigning to keep the governor’s mansion in Republican hands. Former Congress member David Jolly, a centrist Democrat, is offering an alternative. The race matters because DeSantis’s conservative policies have transformed Florida, and voters will decide whether that direction continues or changes.

Ron DeSantis is leaving the governor’s office because Florida’s term limits prevent him from running for a third term. The article describes him as an outgoing governor who served two terms and will leave office in January. His departure creates an open race rather than a standard re-election contest.

DeSantis can still influence the race through the record he leaves behind. He turned Florida toward the right, expanded Republican voter registration, and made the state a conservative policy vanguard. His laws on education, race, gender, immigration, taxes, and regulation give candidates a clear policy legacy to defend or challenge.

Byron Donalds is campaigning to preserve Republican control. David Jolly is presenting a centrist Democratic alternative. Experts say DeSantis’s hardline positions may motivate conservative voters but alienate others. The result will show whether his approach remains electorally powerful after he leaves office.

Florida shifted sharply toward Republicans during DeSantis’s tenure. In 2022, he won re-election by 19 points, the state’s largest gubernatorial margin since 1982. That was a dramatic change from 2018, when he defeated Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point.

The voter-registration figures show an even broader change. Democrats held an advantage of at least 100,000 registered voters in 2020. According to Florida’s Division of Elections, Republicans now lead Democrats by 1.5 million registered voters. The reversal suggests that the shift involves party organization and voter alignment, not only one election result.

Florida also became more Republican in presidential politics. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the state by 13.1 percentage points, compared with a 1.2-point advantage in 2016. Experts credit DeSantis’s low-tax, light-regulation platform and rejection of pandemic restrictions with attracting Republicans to the state.

DeSantis became a model for conservative leaders by presenting Florida as a “blueprint for America’s revival.” His administration joined Trump’s immigration crackdown and sought to remove diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives from public universities. The policies connected state government to national conservative debates.

In April 2022, DeSantis signed the Stop Woke Act. It restricted how race and gender could be taught in public schools, including instruction portraying any group as inherently racist. Part of the law was later struck down after advocates argued it violated First Amendment protections. His 2022 Parental Rights in Education Act also limited classroom instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity.

The article says these policies became embedded in Florida’s K-12 system. It also says school boards had limited room to respond because the governor removed several people over policy disagreements. That record gives other conservatives a ready-made policy model.

If Byron Donalds wins, Republicans would retain control of Florida’s governor’s mansion after DeSantis leaves. That could give the party a mandate to continue the state’s conservative direction on education, DEI, immigration, taxes, and regulation. It would also suggest that DeSantis’s political legacy can outlast his governorship.

The mechanism is control of the executive branch. A Republican governor could continue enforcing or defending DeSantis-era policies and appoint officials who support them. The article says DeSantis’s approach has already shaped Florida’s K-12 system and state politics. Donalds is therefore campaigning not only as an individual candidate, but also as a defender of Republican control.

A David Jolly victory could produce a different emphasis, because he is described as a centrist Democrat. It could encourage policy changes and signal voter resistance to DeSantis’s hardline positions. The article does not specify which laws Jolly would change, so the exact consequences remain uncertain.

When DeSantis first ran in 2018, Florida was a classic “purple” state. It could lean Republican or Democratic, and the governor’s race was extremely close. DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point, even with Donald Trump’s endorsement.

During his two terms, DeSantis pushed the state rightward while Republicans expanded their electoral advantage. He won re-election by 19 points in 2022 and became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in 20 years to win Miami-Dade County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. His platform emphasized low taxes, light regulation, and opposition to pandemic-era restrictions.

The change extended beyond gubernatorial races. Democrats had a registration advantage of at least 100,000 voters in 2020, but Republicans now lead by 1.5 million. Trump also won Florida by 13.1 points in 2024, compared with 1.2 points in 2016. Together, these figures show a durable Republican realignment.

A governor’s influence can spread when policies are framed as a model rather than a local experiment. DeSantis presented Florida as a “blueprint for America’s revival.” That language invited conservative leaders elsewhere to view the state’s choices on education, immigration, and DEI as ideas with national relevance.

The mechanism is political imitation and agenda-setting. DeSantis’s administration participated in Trump’s immigration crackdown, removed DEI initiatives from public universities, and restricted classroom teaching on race, gender, sexual orientation, and gender identity. These actions gave national conservatives concrete laws and administrative choices to promote, debate, or adapt.

The article says DeSantis helped shape the meaning of “Trumpism,” even though he and Trump were rivals during the 2024 Republican primaries. It does not document specific states copying Florida’s laws. It does show how a successful state agenda can influence national political language and provide a template for future legislation.