PT State of the Race: Tinubu’s allies cross party lines, Atiku, Obi build separate campaigns

Cross-party support means politicians cooperate on the presidential contest without forming one complete electoral slate. They may share campaign resources or endorse the same presidential candidate, yet still ask voters to support different parties for the Senate and House of Representatives. This matters because party labels usually guide voters across several ballots, while alliances can create different instructions for each race.

In Osun, representatives linked to Governor Ademola Adeleke and former governor Adegboyega Oyetola joined an event supporting Bola Tinubu. Adeleke’s message backed Accord legislative candidates, while Oyetola’s side urged support for APC candidates. A voter following Adeleke’s position would choose APC for president and Accord for the National Assembly.

That arrangement may confuse voters and intensify competition between allied campaigners. An Osun legislative candidate feared voters could mark the same party on every ballot. The speaker of the Osun Assembly said persuasion could help, but the disagreement remains important before the 16 January elections.

Osun produced cooperation around President Bola Tinubu, but not a joint legislative slate. Representatives linked to Governor Ademola Adeleke and Adegboyega Oyetola appeared together, while Adeleke’s address supported Accord candidates for the National Assembly and Oyetola’s address supported APC candidates. The parties therefore remained competitors below the presidential level.

Rivers used a broader arrangement. At an event promoted by Nyesom Wike, the coalition adopted APC candidate Kingsley Chinda for governor and selected APC and PDP candidates for legislative seats. Governor Siminalayi Fubara and PDP governorship candidate Ejekwu Samuel Soni endorsed the arrangement. The coalition also endorsed Tinubu, although INEC’s updated presidential list still names Sandy Onor for the PDP.

The result is a layered choice for voters. In Rivers, local PDP politicians may support Tinubu even though the PDP presidential ballot lists Onor. In Osun, voters face separate presidential and legislative recommendations from allied groups.

The campaign arrangements are significant in both resources and candidate numbers. In Osun, 30 vehicles were unveiled for Tinubu’s campaign on 31 October. Reports identified Government Ekpemupolo, known as Tompolo, as the donor. The reports did not establish the vehicles’ value, ownership, or how the contribution would be declared under electoral spending rules.

Rivers displayed a different form of scale. Its published candidate list contained three senatorial candidates, 13 House of Representatives candidates and 32 state assembly candidates. APC supplied two senators, 10 House candidates and 21 assembly candidates. PDP supplied the remaining one senatorial candidate, three House candidates and 11 assembly candidates.

Together, those figures show that the alliances reach beyond symbolic endorsements. They involve transport resources in Osun and coordinated candidate selection across 48 legislative places in Rivers. Yet the arrangements remain incomplete or divided, since the presidential ballot and local candidate choices do not always match.

A split-ticket instruction asks voters to support one party for president and another for legislative offices. That creates a harder voting task because the presidential, Senate and House contests occur together, but allied politicians may recommend different parties for each race. It can also make party labels less reliable as signals of political support.

Osun provides the clearest example. Adeleke’s position would lead a voter to choose APC for president and Accord for the National Assembly. Oyetola’s side urged voters to support APC legislative candidates alongside Tinubu. An unnamed legislative candidate feared voters might mark the same party on all three ballots, while Speaker Adewale Egbedun said engagement and persuasion could address the problem.

Candidates could therefore lose votes because supporters follow a simpler instruction or misunderstand the alliance. The arrangement might also strengthen Accord, according to some APC candidates, although APC lawmaker Wole Oke rejected that view. The effects will become clearer on 16 January.

The previous results caution against treating endorsements or a governor’s influence as automatic determinants of elections. In 2023, Atiku Abubakar defeated Tinubu in Osun by 10,421 votes. In Rivers, Tinubu finished first and Peter Obi came second. The contrasting outcomes show that the same national contest can produce different state results.

Anambra offers another example. Obi won the state for the Labour Party while the state was governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance, or APGA. The governing party’s presence did not prevent a candidate from another party from winning the presidential vote. These results give the current Osun and Rivers alliances a historical comparison.

They do not measure current support, however. The article notes that today’s alignments involve different parties, candidates and campaign organisations. Atiku now campaigns with Rotimi Amaechi, while Wike organises for Tinubu. Past results can provide context, but they cannot settle the next outcome.

Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have continued separate presidential campaigns because the article identifies them as nominees or participants on different tickets. Atiku remains the African Democratic Congress nominee. Obi’s ticket includes Rabiu Kwankwaso as running mate, combining two former presidential candidacies, but the article does not state a fuller reason for their separate campaign structures.

Kwankwaso’s Sunday intervention in Kano urged Atiku to support Obi. He argued that the South should complete its turn under the informal rotation of the presidency. He described accepting the vice-presidential nomination as a sacrifice consistent with that position. His proposal therefore asks one established presidential contender to step aside for another.

That reveals the key bargaining problem for a common opposition ticket. Agreement on cooperation is not enough; the groups must choose a single presidential candidate. The article says the four highest-polling 2023 candidates are now spread across three tickets. The disagreement over who gives way remains unresolved.

Party-based ballots matter because voters must make separate choices for president, Senate and House of Representatives. When allied politicians support different parties across those races, the party printed beside a candidate may not reveal the alliance’s presidential preference. This can make coordination harder and force campaign groups to give voters detailed, race-by-race instructions.

Rivers illustrates the mechanism. The coalition selected APC and PDP legislative candidates and endorsed Tinubu, yet INEC’s updated presidential list still names Sandy Onor for the PDP. A local PDP politician’s party label therefore cannot, by itself, tell voters which presidential candidate that politician supports. Osun creates a similar split between APC for president and Accord for the National Assembly.

The source does not explain how INEC registers polling agents, so no article-based conclusion about that system is possible. Based on the article, the clear current issue is communication: alliances must persuade voters to separate presidential choices from legislative choices before 16 January.