Midterm results could change the relationship between Lula and Trump

U.S. midterm elections are federal elections held halfway through a president’s four-year term. They do not choose the president. Instead, they determine which party controls Congress, the country’s national legislature. This matters because Congress can support, limit, or investigate presidential policies.

Voters elect every seat in the House of Representatives during each midterm cycle. They also elect about one-third of the Senate, because senators serve staggered six-year terms. The exact number of Senate seats varies from one election to another. These elections therefore can change the balance of power without changing the presidency.

The source focuses on this possible shift in 2025, when Democrats were projected to gain congressional seats. It says Trump had won control of both chambers after the 2024 election. If the midterms reverse that result, his room to act could shrink, including in foreign policy and in relations with Brazil and Lula.

The result that could change the relationship is a Democratic victory sufficient to take control of one or both congressional chambers. The article says Trump currently benefits from control of both houses, secured after his historic 2024 vote. That congressional backing has given him more freedom to guide U.S. foreign policy. A reversal could reduce that freedom.

The clearest projection comes from an NBC News average of more than 128 independent polls. It put Democrats at approximately 52% of congressional seats and the governing party at 44%. That is an eight-point projected gap. The article presents this Democratic advantage as a possible turning point in the diplomatic crisis involving Brazil and the United States.

Brazil’s government reportedly has high expectations for the midterm outcome. Tensions have included Brazil blocking American communication companies, followed by tariffs and sanctions against Brazilian authorities. The article also mentions Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight to the United States and accusations of interference from senior PT figures.

The article’s projection shows Democrats with approximately 52% of congressional seats and the governing party with 44%. Subtracting the two figures produces an estimated difference of eight percentage points. This is a projected share, not a final certified result, so it describes the polling picture rather than the election’s confirmed outcome.

The estimate comes from an NBC News average of more than 128 independent polls. The article says practically all of those surveys pointed to Democratic gains. That broad polling pattern is why the projected gap matters. It suggests a possible change in the congressional balance that currently supports Trump.

The political consequence could reach beyond domestic legislation. The article says control of both chambers has given Trump greater freedom to conduct foreign policy. If Democrats gain the projected advantage, the president may face a more resistant Congress. That could affect the wider diplomatic context involving Lula’s government and the United States.

If Democrats control one or both houses, Trump could face more congressional resistance to his foreign-policy agenda. The article’s central point is that losing Congress would reduce the president’s room to act. It does not specify one guaranteed policy reversal. Instead, it describes a weaker political position during the diplomatic tension with Brazil.

Congress can influence foreign policy through laws, funding decisions, investigations, and other constitutional checks. A hostile chamber can demand information, challenge executive actions, or refuse money for particular initiatives. Senate control can also matter for treaties and senior appointments. These mechanisms make it harder for a president to pursue an agenda without legislative cooperation.

The article says Trump currently has broad congressional support after controlling both chambers following the 2024 election. At the same time, NBC polling showed 60% rejection and approval near 38%. If the Democratic advantage becomes reality, Brazil’s government expects a possible change in the relationship between Lula and Trump.

A president governs more freely when the House and Senate broadly support the administration’s agenda. Congress writes laws, controls federal spending, conducts oversight, and can approve or block important measures. Unified control does not remove every constitutional limit, but it usually makes cooperation easier and resistance less immediate.

For example, a supportive Congress can pass the administration’s preferred legislation and approve funding for its priorities. It may also be less likely to launch aggressive investigations or block executive nominees. In foreign policy, this backing can strengthen the president’s ability to sustain initiatives and respond to international disputes. The president still acts within constitutional limits.

The article applies this mechanism to Trump. It says his historic 2024 vote gave him control of both houses and more freedom to guide foreign policy. The projected Democratic advantage could reverse that arrangement. That matters for Brazil because the two governments are already facing tariffs, sanctions, communication restrictions, and accusations of interference.

Congress influences foreign policy through several constitutional tools. It controls appropriations, so it can fund, limit, or condition diplomatic and security initiatives. It can also pass laws, conduct oversight, request records, hold hearings, and issue subpoenas. These powers allow legislators to examine executive decisions and impose political or legal constraints.

Congress can authorize or restrict sanctions through legislation, while the president may also use executive authorities under existing law. The Senate has a special role in treaties, which generally require approval by a two-thirds vote. Congress also affects foreign policy through nominations, because the Senate confirms many senior officials. These mechanisms make congressional control important even when the president leads diplomacy.

The source does not list these individual powers. It states more generally that control of both houses gave Trump greater freedom to guide foreign policy, while losing Congress could narrow his margin. Applied to the Brazil dispute, a Democratic Congress could scrutinize tariffs, sanctions, and other measures more closely.

Midterm elections are often treated as a referendum because they occur during a president’s term and focus attention on the governing party’s record. Voters cannot directly reelect or remove the president at that moment. Instead, they can strengthen the president’s party in Congress or give control to the opposition. The result signals public approval or frustration.

This happens because congressional candidates are closely associated with the administration in power. Campaigns often emphasize the president’s performance, major policies, and current problems. A strong opposition result can therefore show that voters want a change in direction. It can also make governing more difficult by altering congressional control.

The article describes midterms as a thermometer of presidential popularity. For Trump, NBC’s comparison of more than 100 polls showed rejection at 60% and approval near 38%. The same article cites a projected Democratic congressional advantage. Together, those figures suggest an unfavorable political environment before the vote.