Defence & Security5 Nov 2026 · about 6 min

State’s ability to defend itself compromised by lack of security strategy, says Defence Forces

The brief

An “incoherent” defence is a response that lacks a clear, shared direction. Military and government bodies may not know which threats matter most, who should act first, or how separate actions should fit together. The Defence Forces warn this could affect Ireland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The central problem is the absence of an overarching national security strategy. Without one, a response to an attack could depend on improvised decisions rather than agreed national priorities. The Defence Forces’ assessment refers to possible large or small attacks, not a prediction that invasion is imminent. The Defence Forces classify the resulting risk as “high”. The missing strategy matters because Ireland faces a wider range of concerns, including cyber warfare, terrorism, hybrid attacks and conventional military threats. A completed strategy could provide central guidance for planning and response.

What does it mean for a state's defence to be “incoherent” during an attack?

The central problem is the absence of an overarching national security strategy. Without one, a response to an attack could depend on improvised decisions rather than agreed national priorities. The Defence Forces’ assessment refers to possible large or small attacks, not a prediction that invasion is imminent.

The Defence Forces classify the resulting risk as “high”. The missing strategy matters because Ireland faces a wider range of concerns, including cyber warfare, terrorism, hybrid attacks and conventional military threats. A completed strategy could provide central guidance for planning and response.

What is a national security strategy, and what is it supposed to do?

A national security strategy sets out the main risks facing a country and how those risks should be countered. It gives government departments and security bodies a common framework for preparation, decision-making and action. For Ireland, it is intended to provide the central guidance currently missing.

The strategy is expected to cover hybrid attacks, cyber warfare, terrorism and conventional military threats. It should also reflect recent security, defence and international developments, including Europe’s deteriorating security situation linked to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Its purpose is to connect these concerns into one national approach.

Ireland has never had a single strategy of this kind. One was due in 2021 but has been repeatedly delayed. The National Security Secretariat now leads the drafting process, and the Department of the Taoiseach says work is continuing to finalise it.

How serious does the Defence Forces consider the risk created by the missing strategy?

The Defence Forces classify the risk created by the missing strategy as “high”. Their assessment says the absence of a strategy could lead to an “incoherent military defence” of the State’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. That rating describes the seriousness of a planning weakness.

The assessment is designed for internal military planning and examines high-impact but low-probability incidents. A Government source stressed that it does not mean the Army expects an invasion tomorrow. Instead, the concern is that Ireland would lack an overarching strategy if a large or small attack occurred.

The warning comes during heightened security concerns across the European Union and suspected increases in hybrid attacks from hostile states. Leaders across the bloc are urging preparation for possible attacks in the short to medium term. The delayed strategy is therefore seen as an urgent gap in national planning.

What kinds of threats would Ireland's national security strategy need to address?

Ireland’s planned national security strategy is expected to cover several types of danger. These include hybrid attacks, cyber warfare, terrorism and conventional military threats. Together, they show that national security is broader than preparing only for a traditional invasion or battlefield attack.

The article also links the strategy to recent security, defence and international developments. The Department of the Taoiseach specifically mentions Europe’s deteriorating security situation and Russia’s ongoing, illegal war in Ukraine. The strategy is intended to explain the implications of those developments for Ireland.

The wider context includes suspected hybrid attacks from hostile states and warnings from European leaders about possible attacks in the short to medium term. Ireland has also seen concerns about cyberattacks, though no culprit was officially identified in the incidents described. The strategy would help organise responses across these different threats.

What could happen during an attack if the State lacks clear central guidance and priorities?

If the State lacks clear central guidance, its response to an attack could become fragmented. Leaders and agencies may lack agreed priorities, shared instructions and a common plan for using available capabilities. That could weaken the defence of Ireland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The key mechanism is the absence of a national security strategy. The Defence Forces say they do not have enough centralised control, guidance and prioritisation for the most severe threats. In practice, a response to either a large or small attack could become improvised rather than guided by a single national framework.

The assessment labels this risk “high”, although it is intended to examine unlikely events with potentially severe consequences. Other pressures could make response harder, including limited funding for military operations and qualified cybersecurity personnel leaving for better-paid private-sector jobs.

Which government bodies are responsible for creating the strategy, and what role do the Defence Forces play?

Responsibility for drafting the national security strategy now rests with the National Security Secretariat. It took over after the National Security Analysis Centre, which had been part of the Department of the Taoiseach, was folded into the secretariat last year. The Department of the Taoiseach says work is ongoing.

The Defence Forces have a different role. They produce confidential assessments to highlight potential threats and support internal military planning. Those assessments are available to Government officials. In this case, they warned that the missing strategy could result in an incoherent military defence and rated that risk as high.

The Defence Forces therefore provide military analysis and identify planning weaknesses, while the Government structures the overall national strategy. The final strategy is expected to guide responses to hybrid attacks, cyber warfare, terrorism, conventional military threats and changing international conditions.

What is a hybrid attack, and how can it differ from a conventional military attack?

A hybrid attack uses several kinds of pressure together or alongside military force. It can involve cyber operations, disruption, political pressure, threats or other methods designed to weaken a state. The article names hybrid attacks as a threat the national security strategy must address, but does not provide a detailed definition.

A conventional military attack is more directly associated with armed forces using recognised military capabilities against territory or other military targets. A hybrid attack can be less straightforward. Its effects may appear across digital systems, public services, security institutions or society, making responsibility and the appropriate response harder to establish.

The article places this concern within rising security tensions across the European Union and suspected hybrid attacks by hostile states. It also mentions cyberattacks and bomb threats whose perpetrators had not been officially identified. Ireland’s planned strategy is expected to set out how such threats should be handled.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.