Africa’s LNG Exports Set to Soar 175% as Buyers Flee Hormuz

Energy buyers are looking beyond the Strait of Hormuz because disruption there could threaten supplies moving through a major Middle Eastern chokepoint. Africa offers large, uncommitted gas reserves outside that risk zone. This makes the continent attractive for buyers seeking more diverse and potentially resilient supply sources.

The shift is supported by major projects. Mozambique is advancing TotalEnergies’ 13.1 MTPA Mozambique LNG project, Eni’s Coral North FLNG project, and ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG development. Nigeria is expanding its LNG system, including Train 7, while Senegal and Mauritania have started commercial operations at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim.

Fitch expects Sub-Saharan Africa’s LNG exports to rise from 35.7 bcm in 2024 to 98 bcm by 2034. That nearly 175% increase could give buyers more supply options and increase Africa’s role in global gas markets. Infrastructure growth and FLNG deployment are central to making those exports possible.

LNG means liquefied natural gas. It is natural gas cooled to an extremely low temperature until it becomes a liquid. In that form, it takes up far less space than gas, allowing large quantities to be loaded onto specially designed ships. This helps connect gas producers with buyers that lack a direct pipeline.

Ordinary natural gas stays in gaseous form. Producers can send it through pipelines to nearby markets, but long-distance overseas delivery generally requires a different transport system. A liquefaction plant cools the gas, an LNG tanker carries the liquid, and a receiving facility turns it back into gas for use.

The article focuses on LNG because Africa’s projects can serve international buyers while avoiding Middle Eastern chokepoints. Mozambique, Nigeria, and the Senegal-Mauritania GTA project are expanding export capacity. Fitch forecasts Sub-Saharan LNG exports will reach 98 bcm by 2034, up from 35.7 bcm in 2024.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s LNG exports are projected to increase from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 98 bcm by 2034. Fitch describes this as a surge of nearly 175%. The increase would strengthen Africa’s position as a major alternative source of global natural gas and LNG.

Mozambique is a key driver. TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project is designed for 13.1 MTPA, while Eni’s Coral North FLNG project is targeting commercial operations in 2028. Nigeria’s Train 7 expansion is expected to lift NLNG capacity to 30 MTPA from 2027. Senegal and Mauritania have also begun commercial operations at the GTA project.

The wider investment picture supports this growth. The African Energy Chamber projects about $40 billion a year for Africa’s upstream sector through 2030. Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and Ivory Coast are expected to receive the largest shares, while Uganda, Kenya, and Namibia add new production.

Africa’s LNG growth depends on infrastructure that can gather gas, process it, liquefy it, and move it to buyers. The article highlights expanding liquefaction capacity, floating LNG deployment, offshore drilling, pipelines, and long-term gas supply agreements. These systems help convert remote discoveries into commercial energy projects.

Mozambique provides the clearest example. TotalEnergies’ 13.1 MTPA Mozambique LNG project has resumed construction after a four-and-a-half-year force majeure. Eni’s Coral North FLNG project targets 2028 operations, while ExxonMobil advances the onshore Rovuma LNG development toward a late-2026 FID. Nigeria is expanding NLNG through Train 7.

Other projects broaden the base. GTA has begun commercial operations, with phase one capacity of 2.5 mtpa and phase two targeting 5 mtpa. Namibia is advancing Venus and Mopane, while Senegal is offering 109 exploration blocks. Together, these developments could support higher exports and new domestic gas use.

Using more gas domestically would help African countries move beyond simply exporting raw resources. The article describes a policy shift toward monetizing gas in local markets. Natural gas accounts for only 17% of primary energy use in Sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 25% globally, so the region has room to expand its role.

Nigeria illustrates the approach through its Decade of Gas initiative. The government is promoting a gas-powered economy and encouraging Non-Associated Gas development. NNPC Ltd and its partners also signed 20-year agreements to supply 1.29 bscf/d of feedgas to NLNG. These arrangements support both supply planning and infrastructure investment.

Africa’s natural gas demand is projected to grow 60% by 2050. More domestic use could encourage pipelines, processing, power generation, and other gas-related infrastructure. It could also reduce the focus on exporting unprocessed resources. The article presents this as a route toward broader economic development, though it does not quantify the resulting gains.

The chain begins at a gas discovery. Pipelines or other gathering systems move gas from wells to processing equipment. A liquefaction plant cools the gas into LNG. This reduces its volume and makes ocean transport practical. At the destination, the LNG is converted back into gaseous form for buyers and local networks.

Floating LNG facilities can combine offshore production and liquefaction. Mozambique’s Coral South has already operated, while Coral North is being developed with commercial operations targeted for 2028. Onshore projects use larger land-based facilities, such as TotalEnergies’ 13.1 MTPA Mozambique LNG project. LNG tankers then carry the liquid cargo to overseas customers.

The article shows how each link supports the others. Gas supply agreements provide feedgas, liquefaction plants create an exportable product, and shipping reaches distant markets. Expanding infrastructure and FLNG deployment are why Fitch expects Sub-Saharan LNG exports to rise from 35.7 bcm in 2024 to 98 bcm by 2034.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage linking the Persian Gulf with the wider ocean. It is a major route for energy shipments from the Middle East. Because large volumes of traded energy pass through a concentrated route, disruption or fear of disruption can affect buyers, sellers, prices, and shipping decisions far beyond the region.

The article does not provide detailed geography or shipment figures for Hormuz. It does identify Middle Eastern chokepoints as a concern and describes Africa as a source of uncommitted gas entirely outside them. African LNG can therefore offer buyers an alternative supply base, provided projects, ships, and receiving infrastructure are available.

That diversification explains the investment surge. Fitch forecasts Sub-Saharan LNG exports will climb nearly 175%, reaching 98 bcm by 2034. Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania, and emerging basins in Namibia are expanding the supply map. Africa’s growth cannot remove global risks, but it can give buyers more options.