Thapa seeks Oli’s support to save Congress-led Madhesh government

Gagan Thapa wants KP Sharma Oli to restore the CPN-UML’s support for the Congress-led government in Madhesh Province. Thapa argued that replacing the government with only one year left in the provincial assembly’s term would send a poor message. His appeal is aimed at preserving the existing coalition rather than starting another government change.

The need is mathematical and political. Congress has 22 seats, while the UML has 24. The Nepali Communist Party has 15 and continues supporting Chief Minister Krishna Prasad Yadav. Together, Congress, UML and NCP would command 61 seats, above the 53-vote majority needed in the 104-member assembly.

The UML withdrew its support and recalled four ministers on October 16. Yadav must win a trust vote within 30 days. Oli said he would consult NCP leaders and his own party before deciding, so the government’s survival depends on negotiations and the UML’s final position.

Krishna Prasad Yadav needs at least 53 votes to win the confidence vote. The Madhesh assembly has 104 members, so 53 is the majority threshold. This number matters because Congress, the party leading the government, has only 22 seats and cannot pass the test alone.

The largest party is JSP Nepal with 28 seats. The UML has 24, Congress has 22, the NCP has 15 and Janamat Party has 12. Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Nagarik Unmukti Party each have one member. These figures show why coalition support is essential.

The NCP continues backing Yadav, despite its alliance with the UML elsewhere. Congress and NCP together have 37 seats, leaving Yadav 16 votes short. If the UML votes against him, he must secure support from additional parties or lawmakers before the 30-day deadline expires.

A floor test, or vote of confidence, is a formal decision by the provincial assembly on whether the sitting government retains enough support to govern. It matters after a coalition partner withdraws support because the government’s majority can no longer be assumed. The vote turns political claims into a clear assembly verdict.

Yadav must show that at least 53 of the 104 assembly members support his government. Congress has 22 seats, and the NCP’s 15 members continue backing him. That gives him 37 known seats, but he needs 16 more if those positions remain unchanged. The UML holds 24 seats and is considering its next move.

The UML withdrew support on October 16, triggering the crisis. Yadav must seek the trust vote within 30 days. If he reaches 53 votes, his coalition remains in office. If he does not, the existing government cannot demonstrate the required majority, opening the way for efforts to form an alternative government.

The CPN-UML said the Congress-led coalition had failed to implement a 15-point agreement. That accusation led the party to withdraw its support for Chief Minister Krishna Prasad Yadav’s government. The withdrawal immediately threatened the coalition’s majority and forced Yadav to seek a confidence vote.

The UML also recalled all four of its ministers on October 16. This was a concrete sign that the party was leaving the governing arrangement, not merely expressing dissatisfaction within it. The change also reflected wider political realignment after Congress left UML-NCP coalitions in six other provinces.

The withdrawal created two competing possibilities. Thapa is asking Oli to restore the coalition, arguing that a government change with only one year left would send a poor message. At the same time, the UML explored a replacement government with JSP Nepal, Janamat Party and the NCP, though that plan has stalled.

If Yadav fails to win 53 votes, the Congress-led government will not have demonstrated majority support in the 104-member assembly. The article does not state the exact constitutional next step, but it shows that opposition parties are already discussing a replacement coalition. The government’s survival therefore depends on finding enough partners before the vote.

Congress has 22 seats and the NCP has 15, giving Yadav 37 seats if the NCP continues its support. He would need 16 additional votes. The UML has 24 seats, while JSP Nepal has 28 and Janamat Party has 12. Their positions could determine whether Yadav survives or a new coalition becomes possible.

The UML has considered joining JSP Nepal, Janamat and the NCP in a new government. However, JSP Nepal chair Upendra Yadav and Janamat chair CK Raut have not endorsed that plan. If no alternative arrangement is settled, the province could face another period of political uncertainty.

The alternative coalition has stalled because key parties have not committed to it. The UML explored forming a government with Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, Janamat Party and the Nepali Communist Party. But JSP Nepal chair Upendra Yadav and Janamat chair CK Raut have not endorsed the proposal.

JSP Nepal’s internal position remains unsettled. Its leaders discussed leading a replacement government with UML and Janamat lawmakers, yet the party has not decided whether to join or what role it would take. General Secretary Lalbabu Raut said there was an understanding that JSP Nepal would be part of the next government, but its role had not been discussed.

Timing is also slowing negotiations. JSP Nepal’s chair is abroad, and discussions may occur four or five days after his return. Until the parties agree on participation and leadership, the UML cannot count on a stable alternative majority. Meanwhile, Congress is negotiating with all parties to protect Yadav’s government.

In a parliamentary assembly, a government needs support from enough lawmakers to reach a majority. When no single party has that number, parties form a coalition by combining their seats. They must keep those partners’ support to pass confidence votes and continue governing. Madhesh’s 104-member assembly requires 53 votes, while Congress has only 22.

For example, Congress formed the government with the UML and NCP. The NCP still supports Yadav, but the UML withdrew its support and recalled four ministers. Congress and NCP together have 37 seats, so Yadav needs additional backing. The UML’s 24 seats could either help restore the existing coalition or support a replacement.

This structure makes alliances decisive. Parties can change partners when agreements are disputed or wider alliances shift. The article links the UML’s withdrawal to an unimplemented 15-point agreement and notes Congress left coalitions in six other provinces. Madhesh has consequently seen repeated government changes during the current assembly term.