Netanyahu loses religious party’s support as rival tipped to form government

Declining to recommend Netanyahu means United Torah Judaism did not tell President Isaac Herzog to assign Netanyahu the job of forming Israel’s next government. The party also refused to recommend rival Gadi Eisenkot. Its seven seats therefore became politically available rather than being formally attached to either candidate.

The decision matters because Herzog generally considers which lawmaker receives the most party recommendations. United Torah Judaism had backed Netanyahu after the previous five elections, but this time it submitted no recommendation. The party said its immediate priority in any future government is deciding the legal status of Torah students.

The move may punish Netanyahu and show that the party’s support cannot be assumed. It could still join a Netanyahu-led government later, according to observers cited in the article. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s has 48, so the party’s position could affect coalition negotiations.

The election produced three important numbers: Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc won 48, and Israeli-Arab parties won 19. Together, those figures account for all 120 seats in the new Knesset. No candidate or bloc secured enough support to form a government alone.

The figures show why coalition bargaining is central. Netanyahu’s bloc is larger than Eisenkot’s, but it remains short of a majority. Eisenkot’s bloc is also short, despite his likely first chance to seek a government. The 19 Israeli-Arab seats could therefore become especially important in negotiations.

Eisenkot could potentially use support from the Arab parties to build a government, but some opposition allies might withdraw their support. United Torah Judaism, with seven seats, has not committed to either main candidate. Its decision demonstrates how smaller parties can matter even when larger blocs lead the election.

President Isaac Herzog is likely to give Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate because the president generally assigns it to the lawmaker who receives the most recommendations from political parties. United Torah Judaism did not recommend Netanyahu, even though it had supported him after five previous elections. That change could leave Eisenkot ahead in formal endorsements.

The key mechanism is consultation. Herzog meets representatives of the major parties, records whom they recommend, and then tasks one lawmaker with forming a government. The election itself left neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot with enough seats for a majority, so recommendations help determine who gets the first opportunity.

This does not guarantee Eisenkot will succeed. Netanyahu’s bloc is larger, with 53 seats compared with Eisenkot’s 48. Eisenkot may need support from Israeli-Arab parties, which won 19 seats, but that could cost him backing from some opposition allies. The mandate starts a negotiation, not a confirmed government.

If Herzog gives Eisenkot the mandate, Eisenkot has 28 days to assemble a government. The president can potentially grant an additional 14 days. The process therefore allows up to 42 days before the first mandate’s effort ends, if the extension is used.

The mechanism gives the designated lawmaker time to negotiate agreements among parties. Those talks must produce a governing coalition with enough parliamentary support. Eisenkot’s bloc has 48 seats, so he would need partners. Israeli-Arab parties hold 19 seats, but using their support could risk losing backing from some opposition allies.

If Eisenkot cannot form a government during the 28-day period, including any approved extension, Herzog then tasks someone else with trying. The article does not specify who that person would be. Netanyahu remains a possible alternative because his bloc has 53 seats, although United Torah Judaism has not recommended him.

The military-service exemption matters because United Torah Judaism and Shas represent ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities that want religious students to remain exempt. Their political support for Netanyahu has been tied to maintaining that arrangement. The issue is also a test of fairness during wartime, when many other Israelis are serving repeated reserve tours.

Netanyahu has preserved the exemption but stopped short of placing it in law. United Torah Judaism lawmaker Isaac Pindrus said that resolving Torah students’ status would be the immediate priority in any next government. The parties therefore want a government to settle or protect the exemption.

Eisenkot takes the opposite position. The former military chief has insisted that exemptions should be closed, while some opposition allies criticize ultra-Orthodox people as self-serving. This divide could make coalition talks difficult. Any future government may need to balance religious-party demands against resentment from reservists and other Israelis.

Eisenkot’s clearest alternative is to seek support from Israeli-Arab parties, which won 19 seats. He is also trying to unite the centre and centre-right, so he must keep his existing opposition partners together while adding enough support to govern. The election left his bloc with 48 seats, below a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The mechanism is coalition arithmetic. A government needs partners because neither main bloc won enough seats alone. Adding the 19 Arab-party seats could provide a strong parliamentary base. However, the article says Eisenkot would risk losing support from some opposition members if he joined with those parties. Some opposition allies have already harshly criticized the ultra-Orthodox, showing how divisive identity and service questions are.

Eisenkot must therefore choose between a potentially workable arrangement and political costs within his own camp. United Torah Judaism has not chosen either side, while Netanyahu’s bloc remains larger at 53 seats. The negotiations could determine whether Eisenkot’s first mandate succeeds.

Israel’s parliamentary system lets governments emerge through agreements among parties rather than through one party winning power alone. The Knesset has 120 seats, and neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot secured enough votes for a majority. Smaller parties can therefore become essential partners or decisive holdouts.

United Torah Judaism illustrates the mechanism. It won seven seats and declined to recommend anyone. Herzog generally uses party recommendations when deciding whom to give the first mandate. The party’s refusal may reduce Netanyahu’s recommendation total, even though Netanyahu’s bloc is larger. It could also later join a government if its demands are addressed.

This creates two stages of influence. A small party can affect who receives the first chance, then negotiate over policies before supporting a coalition. The exemption for ultra-Orthodox religious students is United Torah Judaism’s immediate priority. Its position, along with the 19 Israeli-Arab seats, could shape the next government’s formation.