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Defence & Security5 Nov 2026 · about 6 min

Ukraine Knocks Out 15 Russian Refineries, $23 Billion in Damage

The brief

An oil refinery is an industrial facility that processes crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. It is a crucial link between raw oil and fuels that people, businesses, transport systems, and militaries can use. When a refinery is knocked out of operation, it cannot process crude normally because of damage or disruption. The article says Ukrainian strikes put 15 of Russia’s 38 major refineries out of operation. Another 12 reduced production. This means the affected plants are not all in the same condition: some stopped completely, while others continued at lower output. Together, their crude-processing volumes fell sharply. The disruption matters because refineries farther from Ukraine cannot easily replace every lost barrel. Transport bottlenecks limit deliveries, and Russia may struggle to satisfy domestic demand while maintaining exports. HUR also warned that surviving plants could face lower output in 2027 after maintenance was postponed.

01

What is an oil refinery, and what does it mean for one to be knocked out of operation?

An oil refinery is an industrial facility that processes crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. It is a crucial link between raw oil and fuels that people, businesses, transport systems, and militaries can use. When a refinery is knocked out of operation, it cannot process crude normally because of damage or disruption.

The article says Ukrainian strikes put 15 of Russia’s 38 major refineries out of operation. Another 12 reduced production. This means the affected plants are not all in the same condition: some stopped completely, while others continued at lower output. Together, their crude-processing volumes fell sharply.

The disruption matters because refineries farther from Ukraine cannot easily replace every lost barrel. Transport bottlenecks limit deliveries, and Russia may struggle to satisfy domestic demand while maintaining exports. HUR also warned that surviving plants could face lower output in 2027 after maintenance was postponed.

02

How large is the disruption: how many of Russia’s major refineries are affected, and by how much has their combined processing fallen?

The disruption is broad. HUR reported that 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries had been knocked out of operation by late September 2026. That is nearly two-fifths of the major facilities counted. Another 12 refineries were still operating but had reduced production, so the damage extended beyond complete shutdowns.

The combined crude-processing volume at affected facilities had fallen 55.4% compared with the start of the year. This figure measures lost processing capacity, not simply the number of plants damaged. HUR also estimated more than $23.2 billion in economic damage from strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.

Russia has increased processing at some distant refineries, but that has not erased the gap. Six named operating facilities processed 906,000 barrels a day in September, up 147,000 barrels a day from the beginning of the year. Transport limits still prevent a full replacement.

03

Which Russian refineries and regions have been hit hardest, and why are those facilities important to the country’s fuel supply?

HUR identified Russia’s Volga, Central, and Southern federal districts as the areas facing the most difficult conditions. Shutdowns there matter because the affected plants are major parts of Russia’s refining network. Their disruption reduces the supply of finished petroleum products available to nearby regions and the wider country.

The named facilities include Slavneft-YANOS, Kirishinefteorgsintez, the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery, and Lukoil’s Permnefteorgsintez. Together, these five facilities account for about 33% of Russia’s total oil-refining volumes. Their importance comes from their scale and their role in converting crude into usable fuels.

Refineries farther from Ukraine remain active and have helped Moscow temporarily compensate for shortages. Yet moving their products is difficult. Shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers make it harder to deliver fuel to the areas that lost production. Russia therefore cannot quickly restore the same regional supply pattern.

04

What happens to Russia’s domestic fuel supply and export commitments when refineries cannot produce enough petroleum products?

Refineries are where crude oil becomes the petroleum products needed at home and promised to foreign buyers. When enough plants cannot produce, Russia faces a direct supply conflict. It must decide how to distribute a smaller volume of gasoline, diesel, and other products between domestic consumers and export commitments.

The article states that Russia cannot fully meet domestic demand while also fulfilling its export commitments. Refineries farther from Ukraine have increased processing, but their output cannot move easily to shortage areas because railway rolling stock and road tankers are limited. This turns a production problem into a distribution problem as well.

HUR alleged that Russia had begun importing fuel from other countries through opaque arrangements intended to circumvent international sanctions. The article does not say how much fuel was imported. It does say the pressure could continue, since maintenance postponed at surviving plants may cause their output to decline in 2027.

05

Why can’t refineries farther from Ukraine fully replace the lost production, even when some of them are processing more oil?

Refineries farther from Ukraine have helped Russia offset some lost production. Their combined processing volume reached 906,000 barrels a day in September, which was 147,000 barrels a day higher than at the beginning of the year. This shows that Moscow can shift some work to surviving facilities.

The problem is location and logistics. The distant plants are not positioned close to every region affected by shutdowns. HUR said shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers complicate deliveries of petroleum products. More production at one refinery therefore does not automatically supply a different region where fuel is scarce.

The replacement effort also may not last. HUR said maintenance originally scheduled for 2026 was postponed until 2027. That could force surviving plants to reduce output later. Russia therefore has temporary extra capacity, but not a complete or durable substitute for the disrupted facilities.

06

How are attacks on Russian refineries connected to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and to Ukraine’s demand for Patriot air-defense missiles?

Ukraine presents the refinery strikes as connected to Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine could stop striking Russian refineries if Moscow stopped attacking Ukraine’s energy system. The proposal frames the strikes as pressure intended to deter or answer attacks that threaten Ukraine’s power and energy supplies.

Zelensky also offered the United States an alternative. Washington could provide Ukraine with Patriot air-defense missiles, including temporarily for one month. He said Kyiv was willing to pay for the weapons rather than receive them as military aid. The missiles would help address the threat that Ukrainian energy sites face from attacks.

The article gives no indication that either condition had been accepted. It reports Zelensky’s proposal and the continuing refinery disruption. The immediate reality is that refinery strikes have caused major damage, while Ukraine is seeking stronger air defense and an end to attacks on its energy infrastructure.

07

How does crude oil become usable fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, and why can a country with plenty of crude still face fuel shortages?

In general, an oil refinery heats crude oil and separates it into different components. Further processing changes those components into products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The article focuses on this vital conversion step: crude oil is not itself the same as the finished fuels needed by vehicles, aircraft, industry, and households.

A country can therefore possess plenty of crude while facing fuel shortages if refineries are damaged or shut down. Russia illustrates this distinction. HUR reported that 15 major refineries were out of operation, while another 12 reduced production. The crude may still exist, but less of it can be turned into usable products.

Transport can deepen the shortage. Russia’s distant refineries processed more oil, yet shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers limited deliveries to affected areas. This means fuel availability depends on refining capacity and distribution, not only on how much crude a country has underground or in storage.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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