Netanyahu loses key religious party backing as rival edges closer to power

United Torah Judaism, which has seven Knesset seats, chose not to recommend any member of parliament to form a government. This broke with its support for Netanyahu after the previous five elections. The decision matters because neither Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot won enough seats for a majority, so party recommendations can determine who receives the first mandate.

Herzog generally bases his decision on which lawmaker receives the most recommendations. By withholding its recommendation, United Torah Judaism may reduce Netanyahu’s total and make Eisenkot the likely first choice. The party did not recommend Eisenkot either, so it is keeping its options open.

The party may be punishing Netanyahu and showing that its support cannot be assumed. Its seven lawmakers could still support or join a Netanyahu-led government later. Netanyahu’s broader bloc has 53 seats, compared with 48 for Eisenkot’s bloc, so refusing to recommend him weakens his immediate position without ending his chances.

The Knesset is Israel’s 120-member parliament. Political parties win seats in it through elections. Because neither major bloc secured a majority in this election, the Knesset’s party numbers and recommendations are central to forming the next government.

After consulting the parties, President Isaac Herzog generally chooses the lawmaker with the most recommendations. That person receives a mandate to build a governing coalition. The Knesset therefore matters in two connected ways: its seats show the balance of political strength, and its parties’ recommendations help determine who gets the first opportunity.

In this election, Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats and Eisenkot’s bloc has 48. Israeli-Arab parties hold 19 seats. Eisenkot could work with those parties, but some opposition supporters might withdraw. The final government must therefore assemble enough political support across the Knesset, even though the article does not state that any bloc has already done so.

The new Knesset has 120 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53, while Eisenkot’s bloc holds 48. Israeli-Arab parties won 19 seats after gaining strength amid anger over Netanyahu’s hard-right government.

These figures show why neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can govern with their bloc alone. A majority requires support from additional parties. The difference between the two main blocs is five seats, but that gap does not settle who will form the government.

The 19 Israeli-Arab seats could be especially important. Eisenkot could form a government with the Arab parties, although some opposition supporters might not accept that arrangement. United Torah Judaism also holds seven seats within Netanyahu’s bloc, yet it declined to recommend him. The seat totals and recommendations therefore point to difficult coalition negotiations rather than a straightforward winner.

Once President Herzog gives a lawmaker the mandate, that person has 28 days to form a government. The president may grant a further 14 days. The process gives the chosen politician a defined period to negotiate agreements and assemble enough support in the Knesset.

The key mechanism is coalition building. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has enough seats for a majority, so the lawmaker must secure backing from other parties. Eisenkot may look toward Israeli-Arab parties, which hold 19 seats, but that could cost support from some opposition allies. Netanyahu may still seek help from parties such as United Torah Judaism.

If the first lawmaker cannot form a government, Herzog tasks someone else with trying. That makes the initial mandate important but not final. Herzog’s likely choice of Eisenkot would begin negotiations, while Netanyahu could remain a possible alternative if Eisenkot’s coalition effort breaks down.

The exemption from military service is central because United Torah Judaism and Shas have pushed to preserve it for ultra-Orthodox religious students. Netanyahu has maintained the exemption but stopped short of putting it into law. The issue therefore affects both policy and the alliances needed to form a government.

The pressure comes from unequal military burdens. Many other Israelis resent the exemption while reservists serve multiple tours during the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. United Torah Judaism lawmaker Isaac Pindrus said its immediate priority in any new government would be determining the status of Torah students.

Eisenkot takes the opposite position. The former military chief has insisted on closing the exemptions, and some opposition allies have sharply criticized the ultra-Orthodox parties. Any coalition must therefore manage a serious conflict between military-service demands and religious-party conditions for cooperation.

Eisenkot is seeking to unite the centre and centre-right, giving him one possible route to a governing coalition. He could also work with Israeli-Arab parties, which won 19 seats. Those options matter because his bloc has only 48 seats and cannot form a government alone.

The main mechanism is coalition bargaining. Eisenkot must combine parties whose seats and support can sustain a government. Cooperation with the Arab parties could supply important backing. However, the article says he would risk losing support from some opposition members if he chose that path.

The negotiations are further complicated by the military-service dispute. Eisenkot wants to close exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious students, while United Torah Judaism and Shas have backed preserving them. Eisenkot may therefore need to balance Arab-party support, centre and centre-right allies, and disagreements over religious exemptions before he can succeed.

Israel’s parliamentary system allows several parties to share power through coalition building. A party does not need enough seats to govern alone to matter. Its seats can help another lawmaker reach a majority, while its recommendations can influence who gets the first chance to form a government.

United Torah Judaism illustrates this mechanism. It has seven seats and belongs to Netanyahu’s bloc, which has 53 seats, but it refused to recommend Netanyahu. Herzog generally chooses the lawmaker with the most recommendations, so the party’s decision could affect whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot receives the mandate first.

Small parties can also attach policy demands to possible support. United Torah Judaism and Shas want the military-service exemption for religious students maintained. Observers said United Torah Judaism could still join a Netanyahu government later. Its position therefore affects both the opening stage and the substance of coalition negotiations.