Nigeria lost 3.3m barrels to oil thieves in 2025 – NUPRC

Crude oil theft means the unauthorized taking, diversion or loss of crude before it reaches its intended buyer, export point or refinery. It matters because stolen barrels can reduce public revenue, export earnings and refinery supplies. The figures in this report describe reported losses, not necessarily every barrel physically recovered or traced.

Regulators typically measure theft through reconciliation. They compare production records with volumes transported, exported, delivered to refineries or otherwise accounted for. A gap can indicate theft, measurement errors or later adjustments. In Nigeria’s report, the second quarter produced a negative figure because reconciliation found excess volumes.

The commission combined quarterly figures to report approximately 3.33 million stolen barrels in 2025. The total included 896,471 barrels in the first quarter, negative 200,400 in the second, 440,434 in the third and 2.19 million in the fourth. These figures show how accounting and reconciliation shape the reported estimate.

Nigeria reported 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, while producing 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate. Dividing the reported theft by that production gives roughly 0.62%. Put differently, about 6.2 reported stolen barrels corresponded to every 1,000 barrels of crude and blended-condensate production.

The comparison needs care. The 541.08 million-barrel figure covers crude oil and blended condensate production, while the theft figure is reported crude loss. Nigeria also produced 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate, which the article lists separately. Therefore, the percentage is a simple comparison, not a complete loss rate for every petroleum stream.

Even at roughly 0.62%, the volume was economically significant. The lost barrels could have supported government revenue, export earnings and refinery feedstock. Nearly two-thirds of the reported theft occurred in the final quarter, making the annual total especially sensitive to the late-year surge.

The fourth-quarter surge drove Nigeria’s annual theft figure. The commission recorded 2.19 million barrels in that quarter, equal to 65.8% of the 3.33 million barrels reported for 2025. It was almost five times the 440,434 barrels recorded in the third quarter. The article does not identify a specific operational cause for this increase.

The quarterly pattern was uneven. The first quarter recorded 896,471 barrels. The second quarter recorded negative 200,400 barrels. The commission explained that negative result as excess volumes identified during reconciliation. In practical terms, the reconciliation adjustment offset part of the losses recorded in other quarters.

The final reported total came from combining all four quarterly figures: 896,471, minus 200,400, plus 440,434, plus approximately 2.19 million barrels. This accounting explains why the annual figure is not simply the sum of positive theft incidents. It also shows why quarterly data must be interpreted alongside later adjustments.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission is the body whose 2025 annual report supplied the article’s production, theft, spill and revenue data. Its role, as shown here, includes monitoring upstream petroleum results and collecting revenue connected with oil and gas activities. That makes it central to measuring both production losses and public receipts.

The commission reported quarterly crude theft, annual crude and condensate production, and 357 oil spill incidents. It also recorded revenue from oil and gas royalties, gas flare penalties, signature bonuses, concession rentals and other sources. Its report showed total revenue of N10.42tn against a projected N16.54tn, or 63% performance.

This information connects physical activity with government finances. A reconciliation of volumes helps estimate reported theft, while collection records show what the petroleum system generated. In 2025, total crude and gas revenue fell to N10.42tn from N12.56tn, even though some non-royalty receipts increased. The commission’s records therefore support oversight of both production and revenue performance.

When crude is stolen, the government loses the opportunity to collect revenue connected with those barrels. The loss can affect royalties and other petroleum receipts, while fewer legitimate barrels may be available for export sales. This weakens the funds associated with petroleum production and can reduce the country’s export earnings.

The article also identifies a domestic effect. Stolen crude cannot supply domestic refineries as feedstock unless it is recovered and legally redirected. In 2025, the reported losses were approximately 3.33 million barrels, while Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate. Those stolen volumes represented crude that could otherwise have supported the economy.

The wider financial picture was already under pressure. Crude and gas revenue fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025, a 17.03% decline. The article does not attribute that entire fall to theft, but persistent losses reduce the barrels available for revenue, exports and domestic refining, while raising questions about protection measures.

Energy security spending covers interventions designed to protect oil and gas infrastructure and support national energy security. Such infrastructure includes the assets involved in petroleum production and movement, although the article does not list every item. The spending reflects a broad protection and support effort, not a single programme with only one purpose.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported N8.67tn in energy security costs in 2025, up from about N3.1tn in 2024. These costs may relate to safeguarding facilities and crude evacuation infrastructure, as well as wider energy-security interventions. The article specifically warns that the entire amount cannot be attributed solely to combating crude theft.

That distinction matters when judging effectiveness. Nigeria still reported approximately 3.33 million stolen barrels in 2025, including 2.19 million in the fourth quarter. The coexistence of higher security costs and persistent theft raises questions about how effectively production and evacuation systems are being protected, without proving that every expense failed.

Nigeria’s upstream revenue system gathers money from petroleum activity at different stages. Production generates oil and gas royalties, while awards or grants of petroleum interests can produce signature bonuses. Companies also pay concession rentals, and gas-flaring penalties apply when reported flaring attracts charges. These streams together form the commission’s petroleum revenue collection.

In 2025, oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, produced N8.97tn, down from N11.08tn. Gas flare penalties rose to N611.42bn, signature bonuses to N532.94bn and concession rentals to N38.19bn. Miscellaneous revenue reached N46.44bn. Royalty by price and lease renewal receipts declined to N213.41bn and N8.23bn.

The commission collected N10.42tn overall, equal to 63% of its N16.54tn projection. Its income from cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue was separate, reaching N342.81bn. This structure shows how production, contracts, rentals, penalties and other receipts combine, while individual streams can move in different directions.