These Kiwis were driven to Australia by rising costs. Could an election bring them home?

Some families move because their remaining income matters more than their wage or hours alone. After rent, fuel, childcare, groceries and household bills, a family may have little money left in New Zealand. Australia can offer stronger wages, more jobs and a better weekly balance.

Tajai Ririnui says her family worked long hours in Auckland but had almost nothing left after essentials. Her husband Jayden worked up to 12 hours a day, sometimes six or seven days weekly. On the Gold Coast, he works as a scaffolder. Their income is lower, but they have more money remaining.

This gives the family room to save, support activities for their daughters and enjoy life. Australia’s unemployment rate is 4.7 per cent, compared with New Zealand’s 5.7 per cent. More opportunities and Australia’s long-term wage advantage may continue attracting New Zealanders, especially younger workers.

The latest figures show a clear imbalance across the Tasman Sea. In the year to March 2026, far more New Zealanders moved to Australia than moved in the opposite direction. This matters because the gap reduces New Zealand’s population and workforce.

Stats NZ estimated that 47,900 New Zealanders moved to Australia during that year. About 19,900 New Zealanders moved from Australia back to New Zealand. The difference was approximately 27,900 people, described as a net migration loss for New Zealand.

These numbers show movement, but not necessarily permanent departure. Separate research found that about 77,500 New Zealanders aged 18 to 30 left long term for Australia and elsewhere between 2023 and 2025. More than four in ten may not return, raising concerns about future skills, workers and economic growth.

The Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement is the framework that allows New Zealanders to live and work in Australia indefinitely. That freedom makes migration much easier than it would be if people needed a standard temporary work visa or permanent visa before moving.

The arrangement helps explain why employment and wage differences can quickly influence household decisions. New Zealanders can cross the Tasman for Australian jobs, including work in areas where employers are actively recruiting. The Ririnui family moved to the Gold Coast, where Jayden found work as a scaffolder after working in floor restoration in New Zealand.

Because people can live and work across the border, migration continues as economic conditions change. Australia has long attracted New Zealanders through higher wages and broader employment opportunities. The arrangement therefore connects the two labour markets and makes New Zealand’s worker losses more sensitive to Australia’s economic pull.

People compare the money and opportunities they can actually access. Australia has had faster wage growth than New Zealand for four decades, according to economist Shamubeel Eaqub. Australia also has broader employment opportunities and lower unemployment, giving workers stronger reasons to move.

The figures show the contrast. New Zealand’s unemployment rate is 5.7 per cent, an 11-year high, compared with 4.7 per cent in Australia. Tajai Ririnui says her family earned more in Auckland but had almost nothing after rent, fuel, kindy, groceries and household bills. In Australia, they earn less but retain more.

Housing and other living costs remain part of the calculation, although the article does not provide national cost comparisons. The family’s experience suggests that the crucial measure is what remains after essentials. If Australia keeps its wage and jobs advantage, migration pressure may continue.

A large permanent departure of young workers can weaken New Zealand’s future workforce. It may reduce the number of people available to fill jobs, contribute taxes and support public services. The loss is especially significant when emigrants have recently benefited from New Zealand’s education and healthcare systems.

Victor Consulting research found that about 77,500 New Zealanders aged 18 to 30 left long term for Australia and elsewhere between 2023 and 2025. More than four in ten are not expected to return. The research estimates this could mean a permanent loss of NZ$12 billion in education and healthcare investment.

The effects could last beyond the current downturn. Sociologist Paul Spoonley says historically about half of New Zealanders who moved to Australia eventually returned, but he suspects a larger share of this wave may stay overseas. A smaller returning population could make recovery and workforce renewal harder.

New Zealand’s government has proposed policies designed to make life at home more affordable for young people. The goal is to encourage them to stay or return rather than choose Australia for better financial prospects. The proposals target debt, home ownership and family support.

Finance minister Nicola Willis announced plans to legislate for lower student loan repayments. The government also proposed expanding a 5 per cent home deposit scheme and extending paid parental leave. These measures would address several pressures that can shape decisions about work, housing and raising children.

The proposals depend on the coalition government being returned to office. Economist Shamubeel Eaqub remains sceptical that there is an easy way to stop people leaving, pointing to Australia’s faster wage growth over four decades. That suggests New Zealand may need broader economic improvement, not only individual financial incentives, to reverse the flow.

Wages are only one part of a household’s decision. People also consider housing, transport, food, childcare, bills and whether suitable work is available. The key question is often how much money remains after essentials, alongside the quality and stability of employment.

The Ririnuis illustrate this mechanism. In Auckland, Jayden worked very long hours, but rent, fuel, kindy, groceries and bills left the family with almost nothing. On the Gold Coast, he earns less as a scaffolder and works fewer hours, yet the family has more left over. Australia’s lower unemployment rate and wider job opportunities add to its appeal.

The Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement makes the choice easier because New Zealanders can live and work in Australia indefinitely. New Zealand’s higher unemployment and slower wage growth may continue pushing people out, unless better jobs, incomes and affordability improve at home.