Electric cars are about to overtake petrol in the UK, data shows

Battery-electric cars are closing the gap with petrol cars, but they have not crossed it in the UK’s headline October figures. BEVs held 32.0% of new-car registrations, compared with 37.2% for petrol. The difference was only 5.2 percentage points, making this the closest recorded comparison in the article.

The longer trend strongly favors BEVs. Petrol’s share has fallen by about half a point each month, while BEVs have gained roughly 0.36 points. Extending those straight-line trends puts the crossover around August 2027, with both near 33%.

December could bring the crossover earlier. BEV share usually rises sharply then as manufacturers push deliveries toward their ZEV Mandate targets. If the recent year-on-year pattern continues, BEVs could reach about 37% in December while petrol falls to about 32%. SMMT’s more cautious forecast makes December a close call.

A battery-electric vehicle, or BEV, is powered solely by electricity stored in a rechargeable battery. It does not use a petrol or diesel engine. That makes it different from a plug-in hybrid, which combines a rechargeable battery and an internal-combustion engine. A plug-in hybrid can use electricity and fuel, depending on its charge and driving conditions.

A mild hybrid is closer to a conventional petrol or diesel car. Its electrical system assists the combustion engine, but it is not treated as a zero-emission vehicle. The article notes that SMMT counts mild hybrids with petrol or diesel in its headline categories. This classification affects comparisons between powertrains.

The distinction matters because BEV market share can look different under different definitions. With mild hybrids counted as petrol, BEVs reached 32.0% in October against petrol’s 37.2%. On a stricter definition that moves mild hybrids into the hybrid category, BEVs had already outsold every other powertrain in August.

The UK registered 48,858 new battery-electric cars in October, compared with 56,876 petrol cars. BEVs therefore captured 32.0% of the 152,730-car market. Petrol cars held 37.2%. The figures show that BEVs remained behind petrol, but only by 8,018 registrations and 5.2 percentage points.

The contrast becomes clearer when compared with the previous year. BEV registrations jumped 32.7% in October, while petrol registrations fell 11.6%. Plug-in hybrids also rose, increasing 30.1% to 22,898 units. Diesel and conventional hybrids declined, so almost all overall market growth came from plug-in vehicles.

This was part of a broader shift rather than a single-month spike. Through October, the UK had registered 503,805 BEVs, up 30.4%, giving them a 26.6% year-to-date share. Petrol’s year-to-date share had fallen to 41.1%, from 47.2% at the same point last year.

A continued shift from petrol to BEVs would change the UK’s new-car market quickly. Petrol cars are losing share each month, while BEVs are gaining it. If those movements continue, the two powertrains could reach similar positions and then reverse their current order, making electric cars the larger category.

The article’s linear estimate uses changes since March 2024. Petrol share has declined by about 0.5 percentage points monthly, while BEV share has increased by about 0.36 points. Extending those trends puts both at roughly 33% around August 2027. That is the slower scenario because it ignores seasonal December effects.

December could accelerate the change. Manufacturers often push BEV deliveries then to approach ZEV Mandate targets. A repeat of recent year-on-year patterns would put BEVs near 37% and petrol near 32%. However, SMMT’s forecast implies only about 31% combined BEV share for November and December, making the timing uncertain.

The UK’s ZEV Mandate sets required shares of zero-emission vehicles in manufacturers’ sales. The article says the requirement is 33% for 2026, rising to 38% in 2027 and 52% in 2028. These targets are designed to push the market toward vehicles that produce no tailpipe emissions during operation.

The mandate encourages manufacturers to increase BEV sales because they must work toward those percentages. The article says automakers have used discounts, zero-percent financing, deposit contributions, and subsidized charging to move more EVs. It also reports that manufacturers can buy credits if they choose, while the SMMT says the industry has spent billions on support.

The policy is also driving a dispute. SMMT forecasts a 27.2% BEV share for 2026, below the 33% target, and predicts further gaps in 2027 and 2028. The trade group argues that higher targets can force supply but do not create demand. The government has already opened a review.

BEV registrations often rise sharply in December because automakers push extra electric-car volume before the year closes. The article links this behavior to manufacturers trying to get closer to their ZEV Mandate targets. December therefore produces a stronger BEV share than many ordinary months, which can change the year-end ranking.

The recent examples are significant. BEVs reached 31.0% of the market in December 2024 and 32.2% in December 2025. Over the last five months, their share has run about five points above the previous year, while petrol has run about seven points lower. Repeating that pattern would produce roughly 37% BEV share and 32% petrol share this December.

That outcome would be the first BEV victory over petrol in SMMT’s headline categories, including mild hybrids with petrol. It is not guaranteed. SMMT’s full-year forecast implies around 31% BEV share across November and December combined, making the crossover a much closer call.

Demand is shaped not only by consumer preference but also by the price and availability of cars. Discounts, zero-percent finance, deposit contributions, and subsidized charging reduce the immediate cost of choosing an EV. Regulation adds pressure by requiring manufacturers to pursue rising zero-emission sales targets. Together, these forces can speed adoption and shift market share.

The article gives a clear example of competition changing the market. BYD registered 6,065 cars in October, up 73%. Jaecoo more than doubled to 6,089, Chery nearly tripled to 3,707, Leapmotor doubled to 1,773, and MG rose 85%. These brands are growing while offering more choice and participating in the expanding plug-in market.

The gains are not evenly distributed. Tesla registered only 282 cars in October, down 45% from a year earlier, and had no model in the month’s top ten BEVs. If incentives and competition continue, buyers may switch faster to affordable or newly available models, reshaping which manufacturers lead the UK market.