2026 set to be second-hottest year ever recorded; El Nino yet to peak

2026 is expected to rank among the hottest years ever because two forces are combining. Human activities have already warmed the climate, while an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding temporary heat. Global temperatures are already hovering above the 1.5°C threshold.

Copernicus gives 2026 a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing 2024, currently the warmest year on record. October 2026 was the warmest October recorded, reaching 1.75°C above the 1850–1900 average. It was also the third month in a row above 1.5°C.

El Niño has not yet peaked. The WMO expects it to strengthen toward the end of 2026, with effects continuing into early 2027. That timing could keep global temperatures unusually high and may allow 2027 to challenge, or even exceed, existing records.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It usually appears every two to seven years. Because the Pacific is connected to large atmospheric circulation patterns, its warming can influence weather far beyond the ocean itself.

The warmer Pacific changes rainfall and temperature patterns across several parts of the world. Some regions face increased drought risk, while others receive heavier rainfall and flooding. A particularly strong event can also intensify heatwaves. Its effects differ between countries and seasons.

The current El Niño is expected to strengthen and peak toward the end of 2026. The WMO says its influence could continue into early 2027, bringing above-average temperatures, disrupted rainfall, and greater risks for communities, farms, water supplies, and ecosystems.

The article does not provide one exact average temperature increase for the whole of 2026. It says global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, using 1850–1900 as the reference period. That threshold is central to the Paris Agreement’s climate goal.

October provides a concrete snapshot. Global average surface air temperatures that month reached 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest October ever recorded. It was also the third consecutive month above 1.5°C, showing how persistent the recent warmth has been.

The expected 2026 level matters because crossing 1.5°C for one year is different from exceeding it over the long term. Still, the article reports that the 2023–2026 four-year average is also expected to exceed 1.5°C, increasing concern about the direction of climate change.

2027 could be hotter because the current El Niño is still strengthening. The WMO expects it to peak toward the end of 2026, but its effects may continue into early 2027. El Niño’s warming impact on global temperatures is often felt most strongly in the year after its development.

The event warms the central and eastern tropical Pacific and changes atmospheric circulation. That can raise temperatures across much of the world while shifting rainfall patterns. The current event is expected to push Pacific sea surface temperatures to exceptional levels, adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.

The result is a serious record-setting possibility. The article says 2026 is likely to be second hottest, but warns that 2027 could surpass previous records and become the hottest year recorded. It also could bring greater risks of heatwaves, droughts, and floods.

A strong El Niño changes weather patterns across many regions. It can increase drought risk in some places while bringing unusually heavy rain and flooding to others. Its effects are not identical everywhere; they depend on the country and season. Heatwaves can also become more intense.

The mechanism begins with unusually warm surface water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. That ocean warming influences atmospheric circulation, shifting where heat and rainfall develop. The WMO expects the current event to raise Pacific sea surface temperatures to exceptional levels and disrupt rainfall patterns.

These changes can damage agriculture through drought, heat, or flooding. They can strain water supplies when rainfall fails, while floods can overwhelm communities and farmland. Ecosystems also face pressure. The article warns that the strengthening event increases risks of droughts and floods across several parts of the world.

The 1.5°C target is the warming limit countries agreed to pursue under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. It compares long-term global average temperatures with the pre-industrial period, defined here as 1850–1900. The goal is to reduce the risk of more severe climate impacts.

One hot month or year does not by itself establish long-term warming above the target. However, Copernicus expects the average temperature across 2023 to 2026 to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That four-year period therefore provides a stronger warning than a single brief spike.

The significance is practical as well as symbolic. Scientists warn that long-term warming beyond 1.5°C could intensify heatwaves, droughts, floods, and rising sea levels. The expected four-year average shows that global temperatures are persistently running exceptionally high, raising fresh concern about the pace of climate change.

Human activities cause long-term global warming by increasing heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, according to established climate science. The article does not detail that mechanism, but it identifies human activities as the underlying cause of the climate’s ongoing warming. This creates a higher baseline for future temperatures.

El Niño is different. It is a natural event that warms surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and changes atmospheric circulation. That process shifts heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and alters weather patterns around the world. Its warming effect is temporary and varies by place and season.

These influences can combine rather than cancel each other. The current exceptionally strong El Niño is adding heat to an already human-warmed climate. That helps explain the record warmth expected in 2026, while its delayed influence may keep temperatures elevated into 2027.