China’s Carbon Emissions Plunge 3.1% as Oil Demand Slumps

China recorded a broad energy-use decline in the third quarter. Its carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1%, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA. The change matters because China is the world’s largest generator of CO2, so shifts in its energy demand can affect global emissions trends.

Crude oil consumption dropped 4%. Fuel use in transport fell even more sharply, by 9% over the three-month period. Coal consumption also declined, falling 3.3%. These figures point to lower use across several major parts of China’s energy system, rather than a change limited to one fuel.

CREA said the emissions decline extended a “flat or falling” trend that began in March 2024. It also reported lower wind and solar curtailment, meaning less renewable electricity was wasted. Together, the figures show China used less fossil energy while making greater use of available renewable power.

Carbon dioxide emissions are releases of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere. CO2 is produced when carbon-containing fuels are burned. The gas matters because rising concentrations contribute to the greenhouse effect and influence the climate. This basic definition is broader than the article’s figures, which focus on China’s energy-related emissions.

When oil is refined into fuels and then burned in vehicles, factories, or other equipment, its carbon combines with oxygen in the air. Coal works in the same basic way when burned for electricity or industrial heat. The resulting CO2 leaves through exhaust systems, smokestacks, or other pathways and enters the atmosphere.

The article connects China’s lower emissions with reduced fossil-fuel use. Oil consumption fell 4%, transport fuel use fell 9%, and coal consumption fell 3.3% in the third quarter. Less burning generally means less CO2 released, although the exact amount also depends on fuel types and energy efficiency.

China’s emissions declined because its economy used less oil and coal during the third quarter. Burning these fuels releases carbon dioxide, so reduced consumption generally lowers the amount entering the atmosphere. The result was a 3.1% fall in China’s CO2 emissions, according to CREA.

The strongest change was in transport fuel use, which dropped 9% during the three-month period. Overall crude oil consumption fell 4%, while coal consumption declined 3.3%. These reductions cut fossil-fuel burning across transport and other energy-consuming activities. CREA also reported lower wind and solar curtailment, suggesting more renewable energy was used rather than wasted.

The decline matters beyond China because it is the world’s largest generator of CO2. CREA said the result extended a “flat or falling” emissions trend that began in March 2024. The figures indicate that lower energy demand and a changing energy mix both contributed to the decline, although the article highlights reduced fuel use as the direct driver.

China cut oil and gas imports amid the war in the Middle East. The reduction reflected both lower energy use and greater reliance on alternative energy, including wind and solar. That shift mattered financially because imported oil and gas became more expensive during the disruption and price surge described in the article.

According to CREA’s estimates, China saved $9.1 billion on oil and gas imports between March and August. The country filled part of the gap with wind and solar power. It also relied on its large crude oil inventories after the Iran war pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. Together, lower purchases and alternative energy reduced the need for imported fuels.

China is the world’s biggest crude importer, but it slashed imports as prices soared. The article says the country drew from its 1.3-billion-barrel crude stash for most months after March. Lower imports helped reduce spending while inventory withdrawals helped keep benchmark crude prices in check despite Middle East supply disruption.

China relied more on wind and solar as it reduced oil and gas imports during the Middle East war. Using more renewable power helped fill part of the energy gap created by lower fuel imports. CREA linked this shift to estimated savings of $9.1 billion between March and August.

The article also reports that wind and solar curtailment fell. Curtailment means renewable electricity that could have been generated or delivered is restricted, unused, or wasted. When curtailment declines, a larger share of available wind and solar power can serve energy demand. That can reduce the need to burn or import fossil fuels.

This does not mean wind and solar replaced every barrel of oil or unit of gas. China also used its crude inventories, which held about 1.3 billion barrels, and reduced imports as prices rose above $100 per barrel. Still, lower curtailment and greater renewable use formed part of the supply response that reduced import needs and emissions.

China’s inventories and lower imports acted as a buffer during the Middle East war. Instead of meeting all its needs through new purchases, the world’s biggest crude importer used oil already held in storage. This reduced the extra demand competing for barrels while regional flows were disrupted.

The article says China had a 1.3-billion-barrel crude stash and drew from it for most months after March. It also slashed imports as oil prices rose above $100 per barrel. These stock withdrawals supplied Chinese users, while reduced buying eased pressure on the international market. Together, they helped prevent benchmark crude prices from rising even more.

The effect did not remove the disruption caused by the war. It provided a temporary market buffer while China managed its supply. The article describes this supply management as one of the key buffers available since the war began. It also shows that China’s inventory was large enough to support lower imports while energy use declined.

A country’s carbon emissions are shaped by both energy demand and fuel choice. Using less energy usually means burning less fossil fuel and releasing less CO2. The fuel mix also matters because oil and coal release carbon when burned, while wind and solar generate energy without burning those fuels during operation.

China illustrates both effects. In the third quarter, crude oil consumption fell 4%, transport fuel use dropped 9%, and coal consumption declined 3.3%. At the same time, China relied more on wind and solar and experienced lower renewable curtailment. Lower demand reduced fossil-fuel burning, while greater use of available renewables reduced the need for oil and coal.

The article links these changes to a 3.1% decline in China’s CO2 emissions. It also says the country’s emissions had followed a “flat or falling” trend since March 2024. Therefore, reducing energy use can lower emissions, but changing the energy mix can also reduce emissions even when energy services are still needed.