2026 'most likely' to be second-hottest year ever - EU

The forecast means 2026 is likely to rank just behind the warmest year ever recorded. Human activities have already raised global temperatures, and an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding extra heat. That combination is pushing the year toward a record level.

Copernicus Climate Change Service says 2026 has a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024, currently the warmest year on record. This makes a second-place finish the more likely outcome, while leaving a meaningful possibility of another record. El Niño has also not yet peaked, adding uncertainty to the final result.

The forecast is especially concerning because global temperatures are described as virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026. The expected four-year average for 2023–2026 is also projected to exceed 1.5°C. El Niño could further raise temperatures in 2027, which forecasters say may become the hottest year on record.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It is described as the warming phase of a broader climate cycle. Although it begins in one ocean region, its effects spread through the atmosphere and influence weather far beyond the Pacific.

When the tropical Pacific warms, it changes air movement and weather patterns around the world. These shifts can increase the risk of drought in some places and flooding in others. The altered circulation also releases and redistributes heat, helping raise global average surface temperatures for a time.

The current El Niño is exceptionally strong and has not yet peaked. It set an all-time temperature record in a key Pacific zone last month, according to Copernicus. Because human activities have already warmed the climate, this natural extra heat can push individual years to unusually high temperatures, including potentially 2027.

October 2026 was the warmest October on record, with global average surface air temperatures 1.75°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. This figure measures the planet’s average warming against the baseline used by climate scientists and international agreements.

The result was 0.25°C above the 1.5°C level that countries set as the preferred limit in the Paris Agreement. October was also the third straight month above 1.5°C. Record global and surface ocean temperatures contributed to the remarkable warmth, while a strong El Niño added further heat.

A monthly or yearly reading above 1.5°C does not by itself establish that the long-term goal has been permanently exceeded. However, the broader direction is serious. Copernicus said temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C in 2026, and the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to pass that level.

When El Niño warms the tropical Pacific, it changes the movement of heat and air through the atmosphere. Those changes affect weather systems far from the ocean where the event begins. The impacts do not look the same everywhere, because different regions respond differently to the altered circulation.

The article highlights two major effects: El Niño can increase the risk of drought and flooding. A strong event can also add heat to the global climate, especially when human activities have already raised background temperatures. The current El Niño has set a temperature record in a key Pacific zone and is expected to peak later this year.

These effects matter because they can intensify dangerous conditions during an already warm period. The article links the broader year to deadly floods in Nepal, heatwaves in Europe, and major wildfires in Indonesia. Forecasters also say the current El Niño could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.

Global warming from human activities provides a higher starting point for temperatures. El Niño then adds a temporary natural pulse of heat by warming the tropical Pacific and changing atmospheric circulation. A year affected by both influences can therefore be much warmer than a year without a strong El Niño.

The article describes this interaction directly: an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities. Record global and surface ocean temperatures were reported in October. The natural event does not replace the human cause of the long-term trend; it temporarily amplifies the measured warmth.

This explains why individual years can jump above previous records. Copernicus expects 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, with a 20% chance of matching or exceeding 2024. The effect may continue into 2027, which forecasters say could become the hottest year ever recorded, even though El Niño itself is temporary.

The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is a long-term climate target measured against the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Nations agreed to keep warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The aim is to reduce the worst impacts of climate change, not to treat every brief temperature spike as permanent change.

A single month or year can be pushed unusually high by natural variability, especially a strong El Niño. October reached 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, and 2026 is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C. These figures show exceptional short-term warmth, but they do not alone define the long-term average used for the Paris goal.

Longer averages provide a clearer measure of lasting warming. The article says the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C. The United Nations has warned that the long-term target will be missed in a matter of years, making rapid emissions cuts crucial.

Greenhouse gases released by burning fossil fuels warm the atmosphere by absorbing outgoing heat and sending some of it back toward Earth. This well-established climate-science mechanism is the human-driven warming described in the article. It raises global temperatures over time, unlike El Niño, which is a temporary natural influence.

The article connects fossil-fuel emissions with the need to limit the period of warming above 1.5°C. If emissions continue, more greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere and keep adding heat. Natural events such as the current strong El Niño can then push temperatures even higher for particular months or years.

Cutting emissions would reduce the added heat entering the climate system. Scientists therefore say it is crucial to limit the period of overshoot above 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible. The article does not give a specific timeline, but it makes clear that faster reductions would help shorten that overshoot.