Israel's Eisenkot claims 'progress' in coalition talks as opposition eases on ultra-Orthodox draft

The surprising development is that Eisenkot says he has made significant progress despite the opposition lacking an obvious majority. He claims talks have produced quiet breakthroughs and could create a government to replace Netanyahu. The effort matters because neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot won a majority in the October 27 election.

Eisenkot’s possible coalition depends on reshaping old political positions. Israeli-Arab lawmakers have endorsed him, but Avigdor Liberman refuses to work with them. Liberman has instead signalled flexibility toward the ultra-Orthodox parties and the disputed military-service exemption. Those parties hold enough seats to become decisive partners.

President Herzog plans to announce on Sunday who gets the first opportunity to form a government. Eisenkot is viewed as the likely recipient because Israeli-Arab support gave him the most endorsements so far. He still needs to turn reported progress into formal agreements and secure majority backing.

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox exemption lets members of the community avoid mandatory military service while attending religious schools. Netanyahu has relied on this arrangement for years, although he stopped short of putting the exemption into law. The issue has become a major source of resentment, especially among reservists serving repeated tours.

Liberman once promised to end the exemption and used campaign posters attacking “draft-dodgers.” He also sharply criticized ultra-Orthodox leaders earlier this year. On Friday, however, he called for talks and said the national interest should come before other considerations. That reverses his earlier political stance.

The shift could make cooperation with United Torah Judaism and Shas possible. Together, they hold 13 seats. Liberman still refuses to work with Israeli-Arab lawmakers, so his new position may offer Eisenkot a different route to a governing coalition. It also shows how coalition arithmetic can force compromises.

United Torah Judaism and Shas together hold 13 seats in the Knesset. That number is politically decisive because neither main candidate has a majority after the October 27 election. Their seats could give Eisenkot the additional support needed to control the government.

The key mechanism is coalition bargaining. Eisenkot needs partners who will support him in forming and maintaining a government. Liberman’s refusal to work with Israeli-Arab lawmakers makes the ultra-Orthodox parties more important. His new willingness to discuss the conscription law could remove one major obstacle to negotiations.

United Torah Judaism declined to recommend Netanyahu but did not endorse Eisenkot. Its lawmaker Yaakov Asher said the party’s rabbis would assess any formal proposal. That means the 13 seats are available in principle, not guaranteed. Eisenkot must still offer terms acceptable to the parties and secure wider support before taking power.

Eisenkot’s mandate would give him the first opportunity to build a government, not an automatic right to govern. He would need agreements with enough parties to command a majority. If those negotiations fail, the political deadlock would continue because neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu won a majority in the election.

The article identifies avoiding new elections as one of Liberman’s most important goals. That implies a failed coalition attempt could ultimately lead to another election, although the article does not describe every procedural step. Before that, Israel could see further efforts to assemble a different coalition or transfer the opportunity to another candidate.

The immediate test is whether Eisenkot can convert reported progress into formal support. Israeli-Arab lawmakers have backed him, while Liberman rejects cooperation with them. The ultra-Orthodox parties could provide an alternative, but they have not yet endorsed him. Failure would leave the government question unresolved.

The exemption is especially contentious because Israel has been fighting wars since Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023. Many reservists have served multiple tours during that period. Their repeated service makes the contrast with exempt ultra-Orthodox men more visible and politically painful.

The dispute is about shared responsibility. Most Israelis subject to mandatory service are expected to contribute to the military, while Netanyahu has long accepted that ultra-Orthodox Jews can attend religious schools instead. The community accounts for around 14 percent of the population and has a higher birth rate than the Israeli average, increasing its political importance.

The issue has already affected coalition politics. The two main ultra-Orthodox parties left Netanyahu’s government after he failed to put the exemption into law, though they did not seek to remove him. Liberman’s new call for talks may reduce the immediate deadlock, but resentment among reservists remains a central pressure.

Eisenkot has another possible route: cooperation with Israeli-Arab lawmakers. Their seat count rose after voters expressed anger at Netanyahu’s far-right government. Their support has already helped Eisenkot receive the most endorsements before President Herzog chooses who gets the first chance to form a government.

The obstacle is Avigdor Liberman. He says he will not back a coalition that works with Israeli-Arab lawmakers. His position reflects both a political boundary and his hawkish views on Palestinians. Liberman once served as a Netanyahu aide but now sharply criticizes the prime minister. He remains unwilling to join this particular alliance.

That leaves Eisenkot balancing incompatible demands. Israeli-Arab support can strengthen his claim to the mandate, but Liberman’s seven-seat party is part of the opposition bloc he needs. Liberman’s preference is compromise with ultra-Orthodox parties instead. Eisenkot must therefore choose between competing coalition routes or find a formula satisfying both sides.

Israel’s parliamentary system turns election results into coalition negotiations when no single party or bloc wins a majority. Parties must combine their seats to control the Knesset and support a government. That makes smaller parties powerful because their backing can determine who reaches a majority.

The current talks show this mechanism clearly. Eisenkot has support from Israeli-Arab lawmakers, while Liberman rejects cooperation with them. Liberman instead proposes talks with ultra-Orthodox parties, which hold 13 seats together. Their support could put Eisenkot in power, but likely requires compromise over the military-service exemption.

The result is bargaining after election day. Leaders weigh policy goals against the need to form a government and avoid another election. United Torah Judaism has not endorsed Eisenkot, and Liberman has not abandoned his refusal to work with Israeli-Arab lawmakers. President Herzog’s mandate will begin the next stage, but agreements remain essential.