First results show South Africa's ANC headed to all-time election low with 32%

The ANC received nearly 32% of votes after 80% of ballots were counted. This matters because the party once dominated South African politics. Its result showed that many voters are moving away from the organization that led the country after apartheid ended.

The score was the ANC’s worst election performance on record. It was below the just-over-40% share the party won in the 2024 national election and the 46% it secured in the 2021 municipal election. In 2004, it won nearly 70% of the national vote.

The article links the decline to corruption, mismanagement, and frustration with failing water and power supplies. Splinter parties, especially former president Jacob Zuma’s MKP, also attracted parts of the ANC’s traditional support. Analysts said the result could weaken the ANC’s authority nationally and encourage opposition parties before 2029.

Municipal elections are local contests for councils that govern towns, cities, and other municipalities. They matter because local government is where many everyday services are organized and delivered. In South Africa, voters therefore judge parties not only by national promises, but also by whether their communities function properly.

Municipal councils generally oversee local budgets, planning, roads, waste collection, electricity distribution, and water services. The article highlights failing water and power supplies as central election concerns. It also describes the ballot as a test of whether frustration with local-government failures is changing political loyalties.

The results will shape who governs major places such as Cape Town, Johannesburg, and eThekwini. Where no party wins a majority, councils need agreements between parties. That makes local elections politically important beyond individual services: they can reveal voter sentiment before the 2029 general election.

About 15.9 million people voted from a registered electorate of 29.2 million. The estimated turnout was 54.5%. That figure matters because it shows that more registered voters participated than in the previous local election, despite widespread frustration with local services.

Turnout was 46% in the 2021 municipal elections, which took place during the pandemic. The increase therefore amounted to 8.5 percentage points. More voters took part even as the ANC faced its weakest result, suggesting that the election produced a stronger expression of public opinion than the previous local ballot.

Higher participation does not tell us which parties benefited from every additional vote. However, the results showed a fragmented political landscape, with the ANC first, the DA second, and the MKP third after 80% was counted. Final results were expected by Sunday.

The ANC lost support to opposition and splinter parties in a more fragmented political landscape. The pro-business, centre-right Democratic Alliance gained ground, while former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party became a major new competitor. Analysts specifically identified the MKP’s emergence as a key reason for the ANC’s losses.

The DA had just over 24% after 80% of votes were counted, up from nearly 22% in 2021. It was set to retain Cape Town and was leading in Johannesburg. The MKP, contesting municipal elections for the first time, had just over 9% and was leading in eThekwini, which includes Durban.

The parties’ strength was geographically different. The DA performed strongly in major economic and tourism centres, while the MKP led in Zuma’s KwaZulu-Natal homeland. Their gains made outright majorities less likely and increased the need for coalition bargaining.

The ANC’s vote share has fallen steeply since its high point. It won nearly 70% of the national vote in 2004, when it remained the dominant force after leading the anti-apartheid struggle and taking power in 1994.

Its share dropped to 46% at the 2021 municipal elections. At the 2024 national polls, it secured just over 40%. In the current municipal count, with 80% of votes counted, it stood at nearly 32%, its lowest result ever.

The sequence shows a long decline rather than a single election setback. The article connects the losses to years of corruption and mismanagement, poor water and power supplies, and support moving to splinter parties such as the MKP. Analysts said the result could weaken the ANC’s authority and shape the 2029 contest.

When no party wins enough seats for a majority, it cannot reliably pass decisions or govern alone. Parties must negotiate a coalition, combining their seats and agreeing on how to run the municipality. This matters because election results then become the starting point for bargaining, not the final government arrangement.

For example, the article expected complex negotiations in several major cities. DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis said his party had already contacted other parties. The partners may need to agree on leadership, policies, budgets, and responsibilities before forming an administration.

Coalitions can broaden representation, but they can also be unstable. Political science professor Amanda Gouws warned that earlier coalitions involving smaller parties had been unstable and that this would not improve service delivery. The immediate challenge is therefore to create governments capable of fixing towns and cities despite divided voter support.

South Africa’s municipal system generally converts party support into council seats through proportional representation, while ward contests provide local representatives. This means a party’s share of votes is reflected in its share of seats rather than giving all power to the largest party. The article itself focuses on the results and negotiations, not the detailed seat formula.

For example, the ANC was first with nearly 32%, while the DA had just over 24% and the MKP just over 9% after 80% was counted. A first-place party can therefore lead without controlling more than half the council. Other parties may hold enough seats to determine who forms the administration.

That structure explains the coalition bargaining expected in major cities. Parties must trade support and agree on a governing programme. The result can create broader alliances, but the article notes that previous coalitions involving smaller parties were often unstable, raising concerns about effective service delivery.