South Africa's ANC suffers fresh vote blow as support falls to 31%

The ANC’s national local-election share dropped from 45.6% in 2021 to 30.95% with about 98% of districts counted. That is a fall of roughly 14.7 percentage points. It confirms that the party’s long-standing dominance is weakening.

The Democratic Alliance finished second with 24.56%, up from 21.7% in 2021. Jacob Zuma’s MK party reached 9.62% and became a major force, while the EFF took about 6.3%. ActionSA received 5.6%, and the IFP gained 4.7%.

The ANC remains the largest party nationally, but it failed to win an outright majority in any of the eight metropolitan municipalities. Opposition gains were especially important in Johannesburg, Tshwane and eThekwini. Because many councils are fragmented, these parties may now shape governments through coalition negotiations.

A hung council is a local legislature where no party holds more than half the seats. Without that majority, one party cannot automatically control decisions or form a government alone. It must seek support from other parties.

The results were highly divided. The ANC remained the largest party nationally but lost much of its former support. The DA, MK party, EFF, ActionSA and IFP all won meaningful shares. In the snapshot cited, 122 of 191 fully counted councils were hung.

This matters because fragmented councils require cooperation after elections. Parties must negotiate over governing arrangements and support for municipal decisions. The pattern was also visible in major cities, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini and several other metropolitan municipalities. The result is a more competitive political landscape, but also a greater need for coalition-building.

A council without a majority cannot be controlled by the largest party alone. That party must reach an agreement with one or more rivals, either to form the municipal government or to pass decisions. Coalitions therefore become the practical route to governing.

The article gives Johannesburg and Tshwane as examples. The DA led in both cities, but neither the DA nor the ANC was expected to win an outright majority. ActionSA, a smaller party, could therefore become central to negotiations because its seats might determine which larger party gains enough support.

This creates influence beyond a party’s national vote share. A smaller party can demand policy commitments or governing roles in return for support, although the article does not detail specific agreements. In eThekwini, the MK party led with about 40% but still fell short of a majority, so it also faced the need to negotiate.

Metropolitan municipalities are especially important because they include major population and economic centres. Johannesburg is described as South Africa’s economic centre, while Tshwane includes the capital, Pretoria. Political control in these places gives parties a prominent platform and responsibility for major municipal services.

The election showed a sharp urban shift. The DA led in Johannesburg and Tshwane, although neither party was expected to win a majority. The DA retained an outright majority in Cape Town. In eThekwini, which includes Durban, the MK party led with about 40% but still needed coalition partners.

These results reflect wider frustration in cities over unreliable electricity, water shortages, deteriorating infrastructure and poorly managed services. They also show that the ANC failed to win an outright majority in any of the eight metropolitan municipalities. Coalition negotiations will therefore shape governance in several of the country’s most politically visible areas.

Many voters are judging the ANC by its record in government rather than its historic role in ending apartheid. The party faces anger over high unemployment, persistent crime, corruption scandals and deteriorating public services. Unemployment remains above 34%, with young people particularly affected.

Daily service problems make that frustration concrete. Residents have complained about unreliable electricity, water shortages, deteriorating infrastructure and poorly managed municipal services. The ANC also suffered in major cities, where opposition parties gained ground and the party failed to secure an outright majority in any metropolitan municipality.

The shift does not mean every former ANC voter moved to one rival. Support was divided among the DA, MK party, EFF, ActionSA and IFP. The MK party drew former ANC members and dissatisfied voters, while the DA gained support but may be nearing a growth ceiling. Coalition politics will likely become more important as voters continue to spread their support.

The ANC led the struggle against apartheid under Nelson Mandela. Its liberation role gave the party enormous historical authority and helped it dominate national politics for three decades after apartheid ended. For many voters, supporting the ANC was linked to the country’s democratic transformation.

That attachment has lost some force as everyday government performance has become more important. Analysts cited gross municipal mismanagement, unemployment, crime, corruption and failing services. Amanda Gouws said people had become sceptical of ANC promises, while Daniel Silke said poor municipal management had overtaken the emotional attachment created by the liberation struggle.

The election results show the consequence. The ANC’s share fell to 30.95%, and it lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election. It also failed to win an outright majority in any metropolitan municipality. The party remains the largest nationally, but its historical advantage no longer guarantees electoral dominance.

Proportional representation converts each party’s share of the vote into a broadly corresponding share of council seats. A party winning about one-quarter of the vote will usually receive roughly one-quarter of the available seats, subject to the election’s seat-allocation rules. This gives smaller parties a route into councils.

For example, the DA won 24.56% nationally, while the ANC won 30.95%. Other parties also secured substantial shares, including the MK party, EFF, ActionSA and IFP. With support divided this way, no party may reach more than half the seats, even when it finishes first.

That is why proportional systems often produce coalition governments. The election snapshot found 122 hung councils among 191 fully counted councils. The article does not provide the precise seat-allocation formula, but its results show the central mechanism: several parties gain representation, and governing requires agreements between them.