New Zealand faces weeks of uncertainty with election ‘too close to call’

New Zealand’s election has not produced a secure governing majority. National leads the party vote by only 0.02%, and several seats were won by very small margins. Special votes, including overseas ballots, still have to be counted. Official results are due on 27 November.

National has 42 seats, Act has 13, and New Zealand First has 12. Together, they currently reach 67 seats. National leader Christopher Luxon says this gives the parties a pathway to govern. Labour has 35 seats, the Greens 16, and Te Pāti Māori five. Opportunity has seven seats and could matter if the balance changes.

The right bloc may govern without Opportunity if its majority survives. However, special votes tend to favour the left and could remove enough seats to change that outcome. Opportunity was expected to become a kingmaker, but its support is not currently needed. Negotiations could still last weeks after the final count.

Special votes are ballots cast by New Zealanders overseas or outside their usual electorate. They are counted after election night because they require additional checks. Their importance comes from their size and voting pattern. In 2023, 600,000 special votes represented 21% of all votes.

These votes often favour left-leaning parties. In the 2023 election, special votes helped Te Pāti Māori and the Greens gain three seats between them. The same pattern could matter now because the right bloc holds only a narrow majority. Several seats also have very slim margins.

Nearly all regular votes have been counted, but the final result is not known. Special votes will be announced in about two weeks, with official results due on 27 November. They could reduce the right bloc’s seats, strengthen the left, or change Opportunity’s role in government formation.

The current seat count gives National 42 seats, Act 13, and New Zealand First 12. These parties form the centre-right bloc with 67 seats. That is only a narrow majority if the next Parliament contains 130 seats. The final total may expand because of overhang seats.

On the other side, Labour has 35 seats, the Greens 16, and Te Pāti Māori five. Opportunity has seven seats. The three traditional left parties total 56 seats; adding Opportunity brings them to 63, still two seats below the 65-seat majority threshold. The article also describes the left as three seats short, reflecting the close and changing calculation.

The figures are provisional because special votes remain uncounted. National and its partners can currently reach government without Opportunity. If seats move after the final count, however, the blocs’ numbers and coalition options could change before negotiations begin.

A reduced right-bloc majority would make government formation uncertain. National, Act and New Zealand First currently have enough seats to govern together, but their margin is small. If special votes remove seats or strengthen other parties, they might need support from another party to pass the 65-seat threshold.

Opportunity has won 5.9% of the vote and seven seats, enough to enter Parliament for the first time. Polls had predicted it could become the kingmaker. Its support is not currently required because the right bloc reaches 67 seats, but that could change after the final count.

Opportunity might then negotiate with either bloc over support for a government. The article does not state what terms the party would demand. It does show that its leader, Qiulae Wong, was waiting to see how the remaining votes fell. Negotiations could last weeks after special votes are announced.

New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional, or MMP, system uses two votes. Voters choose an electorate MP to represent a local area and also choose a political party. The system is designed to make Parliament broadly reflect each party’s share of the nationwide party vote.

The electorate vote decides which candidates win local seats. The party vote determines how many seats a party should generally receive overall. Parties can therefore enter Parliament through electorate victories, party-list seats, or both. This creates a Parliament where local representation and national support work together.

MMP also helps explain why coalition governments are important. A single party may not win enough seats for a majority, so it must work with smaller parties. In this election, National may govern with Act and New Zealand First. Opportunity’s seven seats could become important if special votes change the current balance.

Under MMP, a party’s overall seat share is normally linked to its nationwide party vote. But voters may elect more of that party’s candidates in local electorates than its party vote would entitle it to receive. The party keeps those extra MPs instead of losing electorate victories.

Those extra MPs are called overhang seats. National won more electorate seats than its party support allows, so it could gain five additional seats to make up the balance. Te Pāti Māori also picked up five overhang seats. These seats are added rather than replacing other MPs.

The result could be a 130-seat Parliament, described as a record under MMP. That changes the arithmetic of government formation: 65 seats are needed for a majority. Overhangs therefore help parties keep local victories, but they can also expand Parliament and affect how many seats a coalition needs.

Smaller parties are gaining support as the two major parties weaken. The article links that shift to a sluggish economy and stubbornly high inflation. Record support has gone to Act, New Zealand First and the Greens, while Opportunity has entered Parliament for the first time.

MMP has helped give smaller parties a role because Parliament is intended to reflect nationwide party support. Since the system began in 1996, parties have often needed partners to reach a majority. Opportunity’s 5.9% vote share has delivered seven seats, despite its being a new party.

The election shows how that role can shape government formation. Act and New Zealand First could join National, which currently reaches 67 seats. Opportunity was expected to become a kingmaker, although it is not currently needed. Special votes could change the numbers and make its support decisive.