How do you broker UN climate talks when your own country is a big coal and gas exporter? Chris Bowen is about to find out

COP31 is a major United Nations climate meeting involving nearly 200 countries. Delegates will gather in Antalya, Turkey, for two weeks of negotiations. The talks are taking place amid geopolitical turmoil, an oil price crisis and confirmed global heating of at least 1.8C.

Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate change minister, will lead the negotiations. Turkey will preside over the conference itself, while Australia will preside over the negotiations after the two countries compromised over hosting rights. Bowen must help countries agree despite their different economic positions.

His challenge is especially demanding. He will seek common ground among fossil fuel producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, major emitters including China, and poorer countries facing an existential climate threat. His priorities include limiting warming beyond 1.5C, increasing climate finance and supporting a new electrification goal.

Australia is central to global fossil fuel supply because it exports huge amounts of coal and gas. It is the world’s second-largest exporter of coal used in power stations and the largest exporter of coal used to make steel. About one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas exports also come from Australia.

Australia’s gas exports are roughly on par with Qatar’s, although the United States exports more. These figures show that Australia is not a minor producer whose domestic policies affect only its own energy system. Its export decisions influence energy markets and emissions well beyond its borders.

The financial stakes are also substantial. The Australian government expects coal, gas and oil exports to be worth A$141bn, or US$98bn, during this financial year. That dependence makes calls for a rapid fossil fuel phaseout politically and economically difficult.

Australia faces a clear contradiction. It is helping lead negotiations on moving away from coal, gas and oil while earning enormous export revenue from those same fuels. The government expects the three exports to be worth A$141bn this financial year. Australia is also a major supplier of coal and liquefied natural gas to the world.

That position gives Australia influence, but it also invites scrutiny. Climate advocates question whether a major fossil fuel producer can credibly guide a global transition. Scientist Bill Hare argues Australia could push negotiations toward a continuing process for developing a fossil fuel roadmap. Such a roadmap would help turn a broad promise into a clearer transition process.

The government points to Australia’s domestic move away from coal in electricity, which Chris Bowen says has received international recognition. Yet fossil fuel exports remain central to the economy. Australia will need to explain how its leadership can support global change while exports continue.

Countries at COP31 will seek support for a new 2035 electrification goal. It would aim for electricity to provide 35% of final energy use worldwide, rather than energy coming directly from fossil fuels. Turkey and Australia support the proposal.

The key mechanism is a change in how energy is delivered. Activities that currently use coal, oil or gas directly could instead use electricity. This would reduce direct fossil fuel demand when electricity replaces those fuels. The article presents electrification as one of Chris Bowen’s three main priorities, alongside limiting warming overshoot and improving climate finance.

The proposal is important because the talks are focused on moving away from fossil fuels. However, the article does not specify how countries would reach the 35% figure or how electricity generation would change. Its success would depend on countries turning the shared goal into national policies and practical plans.

Limiting warming to 1.5C is difficult because global heating has already been confirmed to reach at least 1.8C. That means countries are negotiating how to minimise further overshoot beyond the Paris agreement temperature goal, rather than acting before the threshold is threatened.

The central mechanism is fossil fuel use. Bill Hare said coal, oil and gas account for about 75% of global emissions. As long as these fuels remain a major energy source, emissions continue to push temperatures higher. A very rapid transition away from fossil fuels is therefore needed to limit how far warming exceeds 1.5C.

This creates a major political challenge at COP31. Countries include wealthy fossil fuel producers, China as the biggest emitter, and poorer vulnerable nations. The official agenda does not include detailed national plans for leaving fossil fuels, although experts view those plans as central to limiting the crisis.

The UN climate talks operate by consensus. This means every country must agree before a resolution can be adopted. The system is designed to produce decisions accepted by all participants, but it also gives any country the ability to prevent agreement.

That rule directly shapes the debate over fossil fuels. Turkey and Australia want the talks to end with an overarching cover decision. However, Prof Frank Jotzo said countries that want detailed routes away from fossil fuels excluded from the process could simply prevail and have that proposal removed from the agenda.

As a result, Australia’s presidency is likely to focus on orderly procedure and avoiding surprises. The need for unanimity can produce broad, cautious language rather than detailed commitments. It also explains why Brazil progressed calls for fossil fuel plans without finding consensus at the talks, and why a stronger roadmap remains politically difficult.

Climate change places poorer vulnerable countries in an especially dangerous position. The article describes the threat as existential for them. It also says an oil price crisis linked to conflict in the Middle East has raised living costs across the globe, adding pressure to people already affected by climate risks.

Climate finance is meant to help poorer countries deal with the climate crisis. At COP31, Chris Bowen will focus on helping these countries access enough money. The finance issue sits alongside limiting warming overshoot and supporting the 2035 electrification goal, showing that negotiations cover both climate impacts and energy change.

The need for finance also shapes international politics. Wealthier fossil fuel producers and major emitters must negotiate with countries that are more vulnerable and have fewer resources. If finance is inadequate, vulnerable countries may struggle to respond. The article identifies access to sufficient finance as a central test for the talks.