The end of Netanyahu? Opposition strategizes to secure a majority and form a government in Israel

The biggest obstacle to Benjamin Netanyahu's return is a possible opposition majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament. Arab parties recommended Gadi Eisenkot to President Isaac Herzog, while the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party declared neutrality. Together, these moves weaken Netanyahu's bloc and strengthen the opposition.

The proposed alliance could reach 67 seats, six above the 61 needed for a majority. The Arab parties do not necessarily need to join the cabinet. They could support an opposition government during parliamentary votes. United Torah Judaism's abstention also helps because its 13 seats would not support Netanyahu's side.

The path remains uncertain. Opposition leaders disagree over cooperation with Arab parties, especially after the October 7, 2023 attack. Herzog had not yet chosen who would receive the first mandate. He said mutual vetoes made it unclear who could actually form a government.

A coalition government is formed when several parties cooperate to control Parliament and support a prime minister. The arrangement matters because Israel's government must survive parliamentary votes. A leader who lacks dependable support can lose votes, fail to pass legislation, or be unable to govern effectively.

Eisenkot needs a coalition because his party cannot govern alone. His proposed alliance would combine opposition parties with support from Arab parties and possibly ultra-Orthodox lawmakers. The Democratic Party's Yair Golan said cooperation with the Arab parties could produce 67 seats. That is more than the 61-seat threshold in a 120-seat parliament.

The coalition is not guaranteed. Some opposition leaders reject any alliance with Arab parties, even if they support the government from outside. The ultra-Orthodox parties are also negotiating over military-service exemptions. Herzog therefore must judge not only seat counts, but whether these parties can cooperate long enough to form a stable government.

The proposed opposition alliance would control 67 of Israel's 120 parliamentary seats. A majority requires at least 61 seats, so Eisenkot's bloc would hold a majority of six seats. That is enough mathematically to support a government, but it is not a large cushion if partners disagree or abstain.

The total includes support from the Arab parties. The Lista Unida has 11 deputies, and Ra'am has eight. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, said cooperation with them would give the group 67 seats. The ultra-Orthodox parties' positions also matter, because their combined 13 seats can help or hurt the balance.

The number does not settle the political question. Some leaders oppose working with Arab parties, even from outside the cabinet. Herzog said mutual vetoes remained a problem within and between the blocs. Eisenkot therefore needs both the seats and an agreement that can survive parliamentary votes.

If Arab parties support Eisenkot from outside the government, they could help his coalition win parliamentary votes without holding ministerial posts. This arrangement would provide the numbers needed to challenge Netanyahu while allowing the Arab parties to remain formally outside the cabinet. It is a way to cooperate without becoming full coalition partners.

Ahmad Tibi proposed that the Lista Unida support an opposition government in Parliament but occupy no ministries. The party has 11 deputies. Ra'am, with eight deputies, said it was willing to join the government, showing that Arab parties themselves do not share exactly the same preferred arrangement.

Outside support would not solve every issue. Tibi acknowledged that such an alliance would not end Israel's wars or settlement expansion in the West Bank. The arrangement could also provoke opposition inside the opposition, since Avigdor Liberman rejects any alliance with Arab parties, even support from outside government.

The ultra-Orthodox parties matter because their 13 parliamentary seats can determine whether either bloc reaches a majority. United Torah Judaism had long supported Netanyahu, but it declared neutrality after tensions over military service for religious students. Its decision weakens Netanyahu and allows an opposition government to approach or secure a majority.

The dispute concerns an exemption for ultra-Orthodox students. Netanyahu did not turn the exemption into law, and the ultra-Orthodox parties even left the government. In response, the opposition began softening its position and said it was willing to negotiate the issue. Their votes, abstentions, or participation could therefore decide the government-forming process.

Their stance remains unsettled. Neutrality helps Eisenkot because the parties are not actively supporting Netanyahu. But the opposition must still persuade them to tolerate or support its government. Any agreement could involve continued bargaining over military service, making the issue central to coalition stability.

After an election, Israel's president consults parliamentary parties and decides who should receive the first chance to form a government. The president does not simply choose the person with the most recommendations. Herzog said his legal authority was to determine who had the ability to build a government.

Herzog hesitated because Eisenkot's 67 recommendations did not guarantee workable cooperation. The Arab parties might support votes without joining the cabinet. Some opposition leaders reject any partnership with them. The ultra-Orthodox parties are also negotiating over military-service exemptions. These conflicting positions create mutual vetoes within and between the blocs.

Herzog said he would decide on Sunday, after further conversations with party leaders. According to Israeli media, he was working behind the scenes on a unity government among Jewish Zionist parties, which would exclude Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties. The opposition rejected sharing power with Netanyahu.

Israel's system is parliamentary and based on party representation. Voters elect lawmakers, not a prime minister directly through a separate national vote. Afterward, parties negotiate to build a government. The leader who can gather support from enough lawmakers may become prime minister, even without a majority of the national vote.

The article illustrates this mechanism through Eisenkot's proposed alliance. Arab parties recommended him, and the Democrats said their cooperation could produce 67 seats. The Arab parties might support his government in parliamentary votes without taking ministries. This shows how parties can combine their seats after the election to create a governing majority.

The system also makes coalition politics fragile. Eisenkot faces opposition from leaders who reject Arab cooperation, while ultra-Orthodox parties are negotiating over military-service exemptions. Herzog must therefore assess whether the proposed seat total represents real governing capacity. A numerical majority matters, but agreements among parties determine whether the government can function.