Is Netanyahu's time up? 10 things to know as rival Eisenkot gets shot at power

Giving Eisenkot a mandate means President Isaac Herzog formally assigned him the task of trying to form Israel's next government. Eisenkot must negotiate with political parties, assemble a coalition, and secure enough parliamentary support to govern. The assignment follows an election that produced no clear majority.

Herzog made the decision after consulting party representatives, Eisenkot, and Netanyahu. Lawmakers representing 67 of the Knesset's 120 members recommended Eisenkot. That recommendation gave him the first opportunity, but it did not automatically create a governing coalition or guarantee support for his policies.

Eisenkot has up to six weeks, or 42 days, to reach an agreement. He has called for a national emergency government based on four principles, including universal military or national service and dismantling Hamas's military and political wings. If negotiations fail, the source does not specify the next procedural step.

The setback comes because Israel's president does not simply assign the government-forming task to the largest party. Herzog considered recommendations from parliamentary factions. Most factions backed Eisenkot, giving him recommendations from lawmakers representing 67 of 120 seats, while Netanyahu received recommendations from 46 lawmakers.

Likud remains the largest party, so Netanyahu retains substantial influence. He is also pressing for a national unity government. Yet party size alone did not secure him the first chance to negotiate. Seven lawmakers did not endorse either candidate, and Eisenkot's broader recommendations crossed the 61-seat majority threshold.

The advantage is provisional. Recommendations do not automatically become coalition commitments. Eisenkot still needs partners who agree on difficult issues, including Arab-party participation and military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students. Netanyahu could still regain leverage if Eisenkot cannot turn his recommendations into a workable government.

Israel's Knesset has 120 seats, so a governing majority requires at least 61 lawmakers. Eisenkot currently has recommendations representing 67 seats. On paper, that is six seats above the majority threshold and gives him a strong starting position in coalition negotiations.

His backing includes a Jewish-led opposition bloc with 48 seats, Ra'am with eight, and the Joint List with 11. The Joint List's unanimous endorsement was especially important because it pushed Eisenkot above 61. Netanyahu, by comparison, received recommendations from factions representing 46 lawmakers, while seven lawmakers backed neither candidate.

The key distinction is between recommending a candidate and joining or supporting a government. Eisenkot still has to negotiate policy agreements and maintain parliamentary backing. Israel's coalition arithmetic remains uncertain because Israel Our Home rejects a minority government supported by Arab parties, while ultra-Orthodox parties may demand compromises on military-service exemptions.

If Eisenkot cannot assemble a coalition within the six-week deadline, he would fail to use the mandate Herzog gave him. The immediate consequence is that his recommendation-based advantage would not become a functioning government. The source does not state the exact next constitutional step after such a failure.

What is clear is why failure is possible. Eisenkot's 67 recommendations are not binding coalition agreements. Potential partners disagree about whether Arab parties should join or support the government. The ultra-Orthodox parties also could demand compromises over military-service exemptions, which Eisenkot and Lieberman strongly oppose.

Netanyahu could then regain political leverage, especially because Likud remains the largest party and he is advocating a national unity government. However, the article does not say that Netanyahu would automatically receive the next mandate. It only establishes that Eisenkot has up to 42 days to negotiate and secure the support needed to govern.

These parties matter because neither Eisenkot's natural allies nor Netanyahu's position automatically settles the 61-seat majority required in the Knesset. Ra'am and the Joint List hold 19 seats combined. The two ultra-Orthodox parties hold 13. Either group could therefore change whether Eisenkot reaches or sustains a majority.

Arab parties could provide external support or join a broader grouping, which the article says could total 67 seats. But Israel Our Home has ruled out supporting a minority government backed by Arab parties. Alternatively, Eisenkot could approach the ultra-Orthodox parties, but negotiations could founder over exemptions from military service for seminary students.

The parties are decisive because coalition formation depends on agreements, not just election results or presidential recommendations. Ra'am and the Joint List endorsed Eisenkot, while United Torah Judaism endorsed neither candidate and Shas backed Netanyahu. Their final choices could determine which bloc can govern.

Cooperation is sensitive because Arab parties have rarely participated in Israel's governing coalitions. The article identifies only one previous case: Ra'am joined former prime minister Naftali Bennett's government in 2021. That administration collapsed after 18 months, partly because of disagreements over the occupied West Bank.

Eisenkot could rely on Ra'am and the Joint List for external support, or seek a broader arrangement. Their combined 19 seats could help create a 67-seat grouping. Yet Israel Our Home has repeatedly rejected a minority government backed by Arab parties, while only The Democrats has publicly called for including them.

The political tensions have intensified since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. The article does not detail every disagreement, but it shows why Arab-party support is politically difficult. Any arrangement would need to overcome coalition resistance and deep security-related sensitivities.

Israel's parliamentary system makes coalition support more important than simply finishing first. The government needs backing from at least 61 of the Knesset's 120 members. A party can therefore win the most seats but still lack enough partners to pass a governing arrangement or survive parliamentary votes.

That mechanism explains the current result. Likud remains the largest party, but factions representing 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, compared with 46 for Netanyahu. The Joint List's 11-seat endorsement helped push Eisenkot beyond the 61-seat threshold. Herzog consequently gave Eisenkot the first chance to negotiate.

The recommendation count is only a starting point. Eisenkot must turn it into a stable coalition or reliable outside support. Potential partners disagree over Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox military-service exemptions. Thus, Likud's size gives Netanyahu leverage, but it does not by itself give him the mandate or guarantee the premiership.