The ANC is still the largest party, but its mandate is shrinking

Being the largest party means finishing first among parties that received votes. It does not mean winning most eligible citizens, or even most registered voters. With 99% of voting stations counted, the ANC held 30.91% and remained South Africa’s biggest party.

The distinction matters because the ANC’s lead has weakened sharply. At comparable voting stations, it received 4,496,869 ward votes, down from 5,186,014 in 2021. Its lead over the DA fell from 2,707,890 votes to 937,176. The ANC still came first, but its advantage was much smaller.

The result therefore combines first place with a weaker mandate. About 13.3 million registered voters stayed home, while roughly 15.7 million eligible citizens never registered. The ANC’s position is strongest among voters who participated, but it does not represent a majority of South Africa’s eligible electorate.

The ANC’s decline appears in both raw votes and its share of the total vote. At 23,353 comparable voting stations, it received 4,496,869 ward votes in 2026, compared with 5,186,014 in 2021. That is a loss of 689,145 votes, or about 13%.

Its percentage decline was even more striking. IEC data shows the ANC won 45.49% five years earlier, but held 30.91% with 99% of stations counted. The article describes this as a fall of about one-third in its vote share. This happened despite more people voting overall.

The figures show a party that remains first but has lost considerable electoral weight. Its lead over the DA also shrank from 2,707,890 votes in 2021 to 937,176. The ANC’s challenge is therefore not just lower turnout among supporters, but reduced support within a larger voting pool.

The ANC’s fall is especially significant because the electorate at comparable stations expanded. Total ward votes rose from 11,496,662 in 2021 to 14,576,511 in 2026. That increase of 3,079,849 votes represents growth of 27%, while turnout among registered voters climbed from 45.6% to 52.3%.

Against that larger voting pool, the ANC moved in the opposite direction. Its votes fell from 5,186,014 to 4,496,869, a loss of 689,145. More people participated, but fewer selected the governing party. The ANC’s share therefore fell as the total vote grew.

This weakens the usual explanation that its supporters simply stayed home. Some non-voting clearly matters, especially in ANC heartlands, but the numbers show a second mechanism: new or newly mobilised voters largely chose other parties. The party lost ground during an election that brought more citizens to the polls.

The parties that grew gained 4,025,092 votes at comparable stations, while the ANC and EFF together lost 945,243. Because the gains exceeded those losses by 3,079,849, the election brought many new participants into the voting process. The growth was not simply a transfer between established parties.

The DA added 1,081,569 votes, more than the ANC and EFF lost combined. MK gained 1,392,945 votes in its first local election. ActionSA more than tripled its vote. These results show that several parties expanded beyond the votes directly released by the two major parties that declined.

The article concludes that at least 3,079,849 gains came from people who had not cast a ward vote at these stations five years earlier. That is three-quarters of all growth. The main mechanism was therefore mobilisation and bringing new people to polling stations, rather than only persuading former ANC or EFF voters.

“Missing voters” combines two groups excluded from the outcome: eligible citizens who never registered and registered voters who did not vote. The article estimates about 15.7 million eligible citizens never registered. It also gives roughly 13.3 million registered voters who stayed home, producing a total close to 29 million.

The comparison is stark. The IEC reported that about 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters cast a ballot. The absent group was therefore almost twice as large as the group that voted. In the article’s broader calculation, the missing voters were nearly the size of the entire voters’ roll.

This makes the ANC’s “largest party” status narrower than it sounds. It came first among participants, but its roughly 4.5 million ward votes at the comparable stations represented about one in ten eligible South Africans. Low registration and turnout weaken every party’s mandate, not only the ANC’s.

The ANC remains the largest party, but its weaker lead gives other parties greater room to shape municipal outcomes. Its advantage over the DA fell from 2,707,890 votes to 937,176, while the DA, MK and ActionSA grew. That narrower gap can make outright control less secure and negotiations more important where no party dominates.

The article does not list specific coalition agreements or municipalities that require them. It does show that the ANC still won municipalities outright and continues to lead in the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and North West. However, more registered voters stayed home than voted in those provinces, and the party appears under-mobilised in parts of its heartland.

For 2029, the warning is about time and organisation. The article describes the next national election as closer than it looks. The ANC must mobilise absent supporters, while rivals must sustain their new participation. The nearly 30 million missing voters could affect every party’s future mandate.

An election mandate depends on the size and composition of the participating electorate. Registration creates the pool of people able to vote. Turnout determines how much of that pool actually influences the result. Party mobilisation can enlarge participation, while persuasion changes which party participating voters choose.

The article illustrates these mechanisms clearly. Total ward votes rose by 27%, from 11,496,662 to 14,576,511, but ANC votes fell by 689,145. Growing parties gained 4,025,092 votes, and at least 3,079,849 came from people who had not cast ward votes at those stations five years earlier. Mobilisation, not only party switching, drove much of the change.

The final mandate therefore reflects the people who voted, not the entire eligible population. About 15.7 million eligible citizens never registered, and around 13.3 million registered voters stayed home. With nearly 29 million absent, the result is electorally valid but represents only a minority of South Africa’s eligible citizens.