Labour expected to cut EV targets for UK’s car industry despite MPs’ protests

The proposed change would weaken the UK’s interim zero-emission vehicle mandate. Carmakers would face a target of roughly 60% electric new-car sales in 2030, rather than 80%. Ministers are considering this because manufacturers say the existing target is unreachable while consumer demand remains weaker than required.

The likely package would also extend regulatory flexibilities until 2034. These allow manufacturers to manage shortfalls through measures such as selling more hybrid cars or shifting some electric-car sales into later years. Louise Haigh is expected to approve the plan after a Downing Street meeting involving transport, energy and business departments.

The government still says it supports ending sales of new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel by 2030, and reaching 100% zero-emission new car and van sales by 2035. However, a lower interim target could reduce expected emissions savings and trigger opposition from Labour MPs and campaigners.

A zero-emission vehicle mandate is a sales rule for carmakers. It requires them to ensure that an increasing proportion of the new cars and vans they sell produce no tailpipe emissions. The policy is designed to push the market away from vehicles relying solely on petrol and diesel engines.

Under the rules introduced by the previous Conservative government, the required share rises gradually. It reaches 80% of new car sales by 2030, followed by 100% of new car and van sales by 2035. Manufacturers that undershoot can use permitted flexibilities instead of automatically paying fines.

The mandate matters because transport is a major source of emissions, and the policy is expected to deliver nearly 14% of the UK’s pledged emissions reductions between 2028 and 2032. The government says its consultation will adjust the transition pragmatically, not abandon the longer-term phaseout.

The proposed change is large: a fall from 80% to approximately 60% means a 20-percentage-point reduction in the 2030 target. It represents a quarter reduction relative to the original 80% requirement. Ministers are considering this because manufacturers say the current path is out of reach.

The gap is especially clear against current sales. Battery electric vehicles accounted for 26.6% of new car sales during the first 10 months of the year. A 60% target would therefore stand 33.4 percentage points above that current share. It would still require a major increase in electric-car sales.

The comparison is not a perfect measure of likely fines because the mandate includes exemptions and other flexibilities. These can let manufacturers undershoot in one period by selling more hybrids or making up sales later. Even so, the proposed target would reduce the pace demanded by the rules.

Carmakers argue that the targets are difficult because higher inflation and pressure on living standards have reduced demand for electric vehicles. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says battery EVs represented 26.6% of new car sales in the first 10 months, far below the 33% target for this year.

The rules contain flexibilities that soften the consequences of missing a target. A manufacturer may sell more hybrid cars, compensate for lower electric sales now by selling more later, or use other exemptions permitted under the mandate. These arrangements mean headline targets do not directly equal the number of fines manufacturers must pay.

Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, wants more flexibility and a meaningful change to the target’s trajectory. He says that would help protect jobs and investment while keeping the transition toward zero-emission vehicles moving. Ministers are weighing those industry concerns against climate commitments.

A weaker mandate could slow the replacement of petrol and diesel cars with electric models. The policy is expected to produce nearly 14% of all emissions reductions the UK has pledged for 2028 to 2032, so reducing its ambition could affect that contribution. Labour MPs describe the decision as one of the government’s biggest climate choices.

The immediate benefit would be less pressure on manufacturers. The SMMT says broader flexibilities could safeguard jobs and investment while keeping the transition on track. More predictable demand may also support charging investment, but the article does not quantify that effect. It likewise gives no precise estimate for changes in consumer costs.

The longer-term result depends on how far the target falls and whether sales catch up later. A slower market shift could delay emissions savings and energy-price benefits. The government still insists its 2030 phaseout and 2035 zero-emission goals remain unchanged.

The dispute reflects two competing priorities. Keeping the 80% target would maintain pressure for rapid electrification and protect a policy expected to deliver major emissions savings. Cutting it could give carmakers more time to respond to weaker demand, inflation and squeezed household incomes.

The departments have taken different positions. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds supports reducing the 2030 target as far as possible, to 50%. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is believed to favour about 60%, while energy minister Miatta Fahnbulleh and Ed Miliband reportedly want 80% retained. The argument therefore crosses departmental responsibilities.

Labour MPs are watching the decision alongside choices on gas, oil and green funding. Some fear a weaker mandate would signal retreat from the green agenda. Others may see flexibility as practical industrial support. The expected compromise is about 60%, with flexibilities extended to 2034, although the government says no decision has been taken.

Petrol and diesel cars burn fossil fuels inside an engine, releasing carbon dioxide and other gases from their exhausts. Electric vehicles use motors powered by electricity and have no tailpipe emissions. Replacing combustion cars with EVs therefore removes those direct driving emissions, although manufacturing and electricity production also matter.

The electricity source is crucial. If charging uses power generated from coal or gas, emissions still occur at the power station. If the grid increasingly uses low-carbon sources such as wind, solar or nuclear power, the emissions associated with driving an EV fall. This makes electrification more effective as electricity generation becomes cleaner.

The article does not explain this mechanism, but it identifies electrification as the government’s biggest decarbonisation policy. It says the vehicle mandate could create nearly 14% of pledged UK emissions reductions between 2028 and 2032. A weaker mandate could therefore slow expected progress, depending on future electricity generation.