This city is on track to run out of water by 2030. For many residents, that day is already here

“Day zero” describes the moment when a city’s water supply can no longer serve large parts of its population through ordinary taps. It is a warning that basic urban systems have failed, rather than a precise prediction that every source will vanish at once.

Cities reach this point when demand exceeds available water and infrastructure cannot distribute what remains. Kabul illustrates the danger: many households already lack running water, while other residents depend on wells, tankers, or public hand pumps. These are signs of a crisis before the entire city is dry.

Kabul could become the first modern city to completely run out of water as soon as 2030, according to Prosper Global. Yet some neighborhoods have already run out locally. “Day zero” therefore describes both a possible citywide emergency and, for vulnerable residents, a reality that has arrived early.

A city can approach a total water shortage gradually, while individual neighborhoods lose reliable access much earlier. Kabul’s residents do not share one water system or one level of financial security. Some households have wells or money for tankers; others depend on public hand pumps.

Shazia’s family has no running water and cannot afford tanker deliveries. She and her children walk to a mosque, wait in lines, fill buckets, and carry them home. Nearly half of Kabul’s boreholes have dried up, and Faizee says water has already run out in many neighborhoods.

Prosper Global estimates Kabul could completely run out of water as soon as 2030. That projection describes a broader citywide breakdown. For poorer families, however, the crisis is already present through exhausting collection trips, costly supplies, and unreliable local sources.

Kabul is described as one of the fastest-growing cities, with expansion driven by homes, greenhouses, and businesses. The article does not provide a precise population total or percentage increase. Its key point is that urban growth has sharply increased demand while water systems have not kept pace.

The clearest measurement is underground. Over the past decade, Kabul’s groundwater level has dropped nearly 100 feet, according to Prosper Global. Nearly half the city’s boreholes have dried up. Water is being pumped out faster than natural processes can replace it.

That combination makes growth a water-risk multiplier. More people and businesses need water, but the aquifers supplying about 80% of residents are shrinking. Without major changes, deeper wells will become harder to drill, tanker costs will rise, and more neighborhoods may lose dependable access before a complete citywide shortage.

Drying wells turn water from an ordinary household service into a daily survival task. Families must find a public source, buy deliveries, or travel farther. The burden falls hardest on households without money, transport, or a private well. Reliable water is also essential for drinking, cooking, washing, and sanitation, so shortages can threaten health and hygiene.

Shazia walks with her three children to a mosque and waits in hour-long lines at a hand pump. They carry filled buckets back home. Her back aches, and she must pull her children from school to help. Other residents pay for tanker water, which is often unaffordable.

These pressures consume time, money, and energy every day. They can disrupt schooling and work while making basic care harder. Kabul’s crisis shows how groundwater decline becomes a household crisis long before the city’s taps all run dry.

Kabul’s shortage has several connected causes. Population growth and expanding homes, greenhouses, and businesses increase demand. At the same time, groundwater is being pumped out faster than it can naturally recover. The result is an estimated annual shortfall of more than 1.55 billion cubic feet.

Climate pressures worsen the imbalance. Afghanistan has endured six consecutive years of drought. Snowfall reached a 25-year low at the end of last year, and snow levels fell nearly 20% between 2014 and 2020. Less snow and ice means less water feeding the Kabul River and recharging aquifers.

The city’s surfaces create another problem. When rain falls on hard, impermeable ground, it rushes away as destructive flash floods instead of soaking underground. Thus, Kabul can experience both flooding and water scarcity: water arrives too violently to replenish the reserves people depend on.

Kabul residents use several workarounds when ordinary wells fail. Wealthier households may deepen wells. Others buy water from tankers or queue at hand pumps in mosques. A smaller group receives piped water. These choices shift the burden from a dependable public system onto individual families.

Mirza Jan’s household drilled its well beyond 700 feet, an expense made possible by money from his sons in the United States. Shazia’s family cannot afford tanker water, so she and her children collect buckets from a mosque. Only one-fifth of Kabul residents have access to piped water, while aquifers supply about 80%.

None of these options can serve everyone indefinitely. Deeper wells keep extracting a shrinking resource. Tankers are costly and cannot guarantee equal access. Hand pumps require long waits and physical labor. Piped coverage is limited, so the city remains exposed as groundwater continues falling.

An aquifer is an underground water-bearing layer that stores groundwater. In Kabul, aquifers form the backbone of the water system and supply about 80% of residents. They are naturally replenished when rain and melting snow or ice soak into the ground and move downward. Rivers can also help sustain connected underground supplies.

Kabul’s mountain setting normally provides this process. Hindu Kush snow and glacial ice feed the Kabul River and recharge aquifers. But six years of drought and falling snowfall reduce the water available. When rain does arrive, paved and other hard surfaces prevent infiltration. Water runs across the city instead, often causing destructive flash floods.

At the same time, people pump groundwater faster than it is replaced. Groundwater levels have fallen nearly 100 feet in a decade. Unless recharge improves and pumping falls, wells and boreholes will continue drying, making Kabul’s water shortage increasingly difficult to reverse.