El Nino ruined India's monsoon: Will it ruin winter too?

India's 2026 southwest monsoon finished below normal, with rainfall 13% lower than average. That shortfall depleted water reserves in some regions and damaged crops. The monsoon may be over, but the climate pattern shaping the Pacific is intensifying. El Nino is expected to remain influential through winter.

El Nino changes large-scale tropical air movement. Those changes can reshape winds and atmospheric circulation far from the Pacific. In India, this may raise winter temperatures in several areas. The 2015–16 winter followed a strong El Nino and a severely deficient monsoon, and was unusually warm with very little winter rain.

The concern is not a guaranteed dry or harsh winter. El Nino can also affect western disturbances, which bring rain to northwestern plains and snow to the Himalayas. Forecasts suggest El Nino may strengthen through late 2026 and continue into early 2027, increasing the chance of warmth, disrupted rainfall and regional weather swings.

The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a rainfall deficit of 13%. This means India received substantially less rain than its normal seasonal total. The number is important because the southwest monsoon replenishes reservoirs, soil moisture and other water supplies before winter. A weak monsoon can therefore leave farmers and communities more vulnerable.

The article says parts of India were left with depleted water reserves and damaged crops. These effects can continue beyond the monsoon season. Rabi crops, including wheat, depend on suitable winter temperatures and timely moisture. Winter rain and mountain snow also help support water availability later.

The deficit does not determine the entire winter forecast. A strengthening El Nino could bring warmer conditions in several regions and disrupt winter rainfall. Yet it may also increase precipitation over northwestern India by influencing western disturbances. The key issue is whether India receives the right balance of cold, rain and snow after a poor monsoon.

El Nino is a recurring warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It changes the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere. That disturbance affects rising and sinking air across the tropics. Because the atmosphere is connected over great distances, the effects can travel far beyond the Pacific.

The article explains that El Nino shifts large-scale patterns of rising and sinking air. These changes influence wind patterns thousands of kilometres away. They can affect the circulation systems controlling India's winter weather. One result may be warmer winter conditions over parts of India. Another may involve changes in western disturbances and winter precipitation.

This connection is powerful but not perfectly predictable. Indian Ocean conditions and regional atmospheric circulation can modify the Pacific signal. That is why one El Nino year may produce a deficient monsoon, while another strong event brings near-normal rainfall. El Nino sets a broad climate background, but India's own atmosphere helps determine the local result.

A strong El Nino can make winter warmer than normal across parts of India. It changes tropical circulation and distant wind patterns, which may reduce the usual winter chill. This matters because winter is the growing season for wheat and other Rabi crops. Too much warmth or poorly timed moisture can affect crop development.

The 2015–16 winter offers a clear example. It followed a strong El Nino and a severely deficient monsoon. Many areas experienced temperatures several degrees above normal during parts of December and January. Winter rainfall was exceptionally low. However, El Nino does not always produce a dry winter. Research links it in some situations to more precipitation in northwestern India.

That precipitation comes through changes in western disturbances. These systems bring rain to the northwest and snow to the Himalayas. A strong El Nino could therefore mean regional warmth, altered rainfall and changed rain-versus-snow patterns. Forecasts point to influence into early 2027, but local outcomes remain uncertain.

Western disturbances are weather systems that travel eastward from the Mediterranean and nearby regions. They are a major source of winter precipitation for northwestern India. As they cross the region, they can bring rain to the plains and snow to the Himalayas. Their timing and strength strongly influence winter conditions.

These storms matter because winter is the main growing period for wheat and other Rabi crops. Rain can provide useful moisture to fields, while Himalayan snow contributes to mountain water storage. The article also says El Nino can change atmospheric circulation in ways that strengthen or alter western disturbances. This creates an important contrast with El Nino's tendency toward warmth.

Therefore, a strong El Nino does not automatically mean a dry winter everywhere. It may produce warmer temperatures in some places while increasing winter precipitation in northwestern India. The final pattern depends on how western disturbances behave, along with Indian Ocean conditions and regional circulation during winter.

Historical El Nino years show that the relationship with Indian weather is complicated. In 1982 and 1987, major El Nino events coincided with severe Indian monsoon deficits. That pattern supports the concern that a strong Pacific event can weaken monsoon rainfall. But it is not a rule that works every time.

In 1997, another exceptionally strong El Nino produced an almost normal all-India monsoon. Scientists linked that different outcome to changes in atmospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean. The winter record is also varied. After the strong El Nino and deficient 2015 monsoon, the 2015–16 winter had unusually high temperatures and exceptionally low rainfall in many areas.

These examples show why forecasts must consider more than El Nino's strength. Western disturbances, Indian Ocean conditions and regional circulation can reshape the result. For winter 2026–27, El Nino raises the possibility of warmth and disrupted rain, but history does not justify predicting identical conditions across India.

The same El Nino can produce different outcomes because India's weather responds to several interacting systems. El Nino changes the Pacific's heat and tropical circulation, but that signal must travel through the atmosphere. Conditions over the Indian Ocean and regional wind patterns can strengthen, weaken or redirect its influence.

The article gives clear evidence. The strong 1997 El Nino produced an almost normal all-India monsoon, unlike the severe deficits associated with 1982 and 1987. Scientists attributed the difference partly to atmospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean. In winter, western disturbances add another layer. El Nino may bring warmth while also changing these storms and increasing precipitation in northwestern India.

As a result, one region may be warmer while another receives more rain or snow. The 2026–27 winter could bring warmth, disrupted rainfall and larger weather swings, but not identical conditions everywhere. Forecasts must therefore combine the Pacific signal with Indian Ocean behavior, western disturbances and local atmospheric conditions.